[CQ-Contest] NOAA/NASA international panel releases their latest Solar Cycle 25 forecast

[Bob Shohet, KQ2M]

Hi Frank,

Their original anomalous Solar Flux forecast came without explanation and now their revision comes many months later without explanation too.

Here is a chart of their original forecast of Sunspot Number Progression (tks K9LA)

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Apparently they have not updated this yet.

73


Bob, KQ2M


From: donovanf at starpower.net 
Sent: Tuesday, December 10, 2019 2:15 PM
To: Bob Shohet, KQ2M 
Cc: cq-contest 
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] NOAA/NASA international panel releases their latest Solar Cycle 25 forecast

Hi Bob, 

I haven't seen anything other than what I posted

73
Frank
W3LPL


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Bob Shohet, KQ2M" <kq2m at kq2m.com>
To: "cq-contest" <cq-contest at contesting.com>, donovanf at starpower.net
Sent: Tuesday, December 10, 2019 7:02:42 PM
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] NOAA/NASA international panel releases their latest Solar Cycle 25 forecast


Hi Frank,

Thank you for posting that.  If I recall correctly, this is a DRAMATIC revision in forecast compared to what the NOAA had on their website in March 2019 (Solar Flux plunging to the upper 50’s and remaining there for several years) that you and I discussed and I challenged the accuracy of. 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux

Have you seen any explanation for their revision?  I can’t find one.

Tnx & 73


Bob  KQ2M


From: donovanf at starpower.net 
Sent: Tuesday, December 10, 2019 12:24 PM
To: cq-contest 
Subject: [CQ-Contest] NOAA/NASA international panel releases their latest Solar Cycle 25 forecast

The forecast consensus: Cycle 25 will peak in July 2025 (+/- 8 months), 
with a smoothed sunspot number of 115. 
Cycle 25 is forecast to be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24. 
The panel concurred that solar minimum will occur in April 2020 (+/- 6 months). 
If their solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Cycle 24 
the 7 th longest on record (11.4 years). www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update