[CQ-Contest] NOAA/NASA international panel releases their latest Solar Cycle 25 forecast
Bob Shohet, KQ2M
kq2m at kq2m.com
Tue Dec 10 15:05:13 EST 2019
Hi Frank,
Their original anomalous Solar Flux forecast came without explanation and now their revision comes many months later without explanation too.
Here is a chart of their original forecast of Sunspot Number Progression (tks K9LA)
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
Apparently they have not updated this yet.
73
Bob, KQ2M
From: donovanf at starpower.net
Sent: Tuesday, December 10, 2019 2:15 PM
To: Bob Shohet, KQ2M
Cc: cq-contest
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] NOAA/NASA international panel releases their latest Solar Cycle 25 forecast
Hi Bob,
I haven't seen anything other than what I posted
73
Frank
W3LPL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Bob Shohet, KQ2M" <kq2m at kq2m.com>
To: "cq-contest" <cq-contest at contesting.com>, donovanf at starpower.net
Sent: Tuesday, December 10, 2019 7:02:42 PM
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] NOAA/NASA international panel releases their latest Solar Cycle 25 forecast
Hi Frank,
Thank you for posting that. If I recall correctly, this is a DRAMATIC revision in forecast compared to what the NOAA had on their website in March 2019 (Solar Flux plunging to the upper 50’s and remaining there for several years) that you and I discussed and I challenged the accuracy of.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux
Have you seen any explanation for their revision? I can’t find one.
Tnx & 73
Bob KQ2M
From: donovanf at starpower.net
Sent: Tuesday, December 10, 2019 12:24 PM
To: cq-contest
Subject: [CQ-Contest] NOAA/NASA international panel releases their latest Solar Cycle 25 forecast
The forecast consensus: Cycle 25 will peak in July 2025 (+/- 8 months),
with a smoothed sunspot number of 115.
Cycle 25 is forecast to be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24.
The panel concurred that solar minimum will occur in April 2020 (+/- 6 months).
If their solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Cycle 24
the 7 th longest on record (11.4 years). www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update
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