[CQ-Contest] sunspot cycle

[Bill Parry]

Thanks Frank for a little sanity in this discussion.  The sky has not fallen
and here is plenty of DX to work. I am on 40 meters virtually every night
and the propagation into EU is just fine, not to mention I hear the SoPAC
off the back of the beam. If I choose to get on in the morning, the AS
stations are there every day, not to mention other AS areas as well.

I certainly plan on working Bouvet on 20 and 40. No antenna for 80 right
now.

Bill W5VX



-----Original Message-----
From: CQ-Contest <cq-contest-bounces at contesting.com> On Behalf Of
donovanf at starpower.net
Sent: Sunday, March 24, 2019 5:05 PM
To: cq-contest at contesting.com; topband <topband at contesting.com>
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] sunspot cycle

Hi Bill, 


The current computerized SWPC Solar Cycle Progression product is fatally
flawed and an embarrassment to NOAA's scientists. 
Why they don't have the wisdom to remove it from their web site is beyond
rational understanding or explanation. 


www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression 


60 years of h istorical solar flux values are posted on the SILSO web site.
The solar flux has never -- even for a single day -- approached 60, much
less SWPC's forecasted 50s. 
. 
http://www.solen.info/solar/history 


The good news is that NOAA's Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel will meet on
April 5th. Later this year the Panel's forecast will replace SWPC's current
forecast. 


Its likely that we're at least one year away from Solar Minimum, with many
spotless days in our future through 2022 and perhaps longer. 


Lacking a consensus Cycle 25 forecast, the SILSO Spotless Days web page
provides a reasonable forecast of solar minimum. The web page forecasts 800
(+/- 224) spotless days during the Cycle 24-25 transition with solar minimum
in May 2020 (+/- 10 months). 


www.sidc.be/silso/spotless 


There have been 412 spotless days since the Cycle 24-25 transition began in
2016. During the Cycle 23-24 transition there were 508 spotless days during
four years before solar minimum in December 2008 and 309 spotless days
during the two years after solar minimum. 

The good news is that we get to enjoy 160 and 80 meters for at least three
more years, maybe more. 


73 
Frank 
W3LPL 




----- Original Message -----

From: "Bill kollenbaum via CQ-Contest" <cq-contest at contesting.com> 
To: cq-contest at contesting.com 
Sent: Sunday, March 24, 2019 7:24:12 PM 
Subject: [CQ-Contest] sunspot cycle 

The post was not about the demise of contesting, it was about sunspots
numbers and propagation. If you look at the numbers, they predict a flux
consistently in the 50s. I can't remember ever seeing a number that low. We
have been banging around 70 or so for most of this year, with a few
exception like those right now (around 80). Almost everyone seems to agree,
that at that number conditions are not very good 
Of course we will always have some bands open, but if the null in the
sunspots continue through 2022 it is generally thought that this cycle will
be extremely low at the peak since there is a direct correlation between the
length of the minimum and the strength of the next cycle. 
This may or may not have an effect on contesting. However, it is pretty easy
to see that it has had an effect on daily operating. 
KH7XS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 
Bill, 

You have made other statements about the demise of contesting. It's not
happening. 

For example, 2900 QSO's from New Mexico in ARRL DX CW a few weekends ago. No

sunspots. Great fun. 

73, 
Steve, N2IC 

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