[CQ-Contest] Sudden Increase Solar Cycle 25 Activity as we approach the CQWW CW DX Contest
donovanf at erols.com
donovanf at erols.com
Fri Nov 27 14:48:48 EST 2020
Hi John,
The E and F1 regions are capable of daytime "blanketing" of low angle
propagation to the F2 layer that we use for long haul DXing. Blanketing
reflects signals to the Earth before they reach the F2 layer.
Fortunately both the E and F1 regions are active only on the sun facing
side of the Earth; however, residual E region activity sometimes
blankets 160 meter access to the F2 region at low radiation angles
especially during the summer.
The F1 region is typically active only during the summer and occasionally
during the spring and fall. Fortunately it very rapidly disappears at sunset.
Its main deleterious affects are on 14 MHz during summer days with
blanketing of low angle F2 propagation and deviative absorption of
higher angle F2 propagation. Sporadic E is our savior for daytime
DXing during the summer
In the specific case of 40 meters, E region MUFs are typically above
7 MHz during the day, gradually dropping below 7 MHz after mid-afternoon.
That's why you can reliably work stations out to about 1200 miles during
the day. E region MUFs gradually drop below 7 MHz starting at about
2 p.m. local time except during the summer.
As we approach solar maximum in a few years the E region MUFs
will increase and the E region will blanket low angle 7 MHz access
to the F2 layer until later in the afternoon.
73
Frank
W3LPL
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Geiger" <af5cc2 at gmail.com>
To: "K9MA" <k9ma at sdellington.us>
Cc: "CQ Contest" <cq-contest at contesting.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 26, 2020 8:01:18 PM
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Sudden Increase Solar Cycle 25 Activity as we approach the CQWW CW DX Contest
"E layer ionization ( not sporadic-E -- that's completely different) hasn't
> yet begun to increase significantly. As we get closer to solar maximum
> consistently higher E-layer MUFs will blanket 40 meter DX openings
> until later in the afternoon"
Could someone explain this one further? Does the higher E layer MUF keep
signals from reaching the F layer for 40 meter DX? Or does it cause
shorter skip openings on 40 meters which covers up the DX stations, or what
is the connection?
73 John AF5CC
On Thu, Nov 26, 2020 at 1:46 PM K9MA <k9ma at sdellington.us> wrote:
> Thanks, Frank, for the excellent explanation.
>
> 73,
> Scott K9MA
>
> On 11/26/2020 1:19 AM, donovanf at erols.com wrote:
> >
> >
> > Sunspot activity has increased dramatically over the last two months.
> > Most days this month have had multiple and more active sunspots
> > resulting in the solar flux index exceeding 100 for the first time since
> > September 2017. SFI is likely to remain above 100 during the CQWW
> > CW DX Contest and remain at 90 or above for at least another week.
> >
> >
> > But recall that both the sunspot number and the 2800 MHz solar flux
> > index are proxies for the the actual source of F layer ionization that
> cannot
> > be observed on the surface of the Earth: extreme ultraviolet radiation
> >
> >
> > We can't yet determine if this is a short term surge or a sustained
> > increase in sunspot activity. We'll have a better understanding in about
> > six months.
> >
> >
> > The first year of increased sunspot activity is a sweet spot in the
> solar cycle because:
> >
> >
> > - increased extreme ultraviolet radiation starts to open the 10 meter
> band,
> > makes 15 meters more reliable including more frequent JA and long path
> openings
> > keeps 20 meters open later into the night and opens it well before
> sunrise
> > keeps the MUF into Europe above 7 MHz during most or all of the night
> >
> >
> > - coronal hole high speed streams that cause elevated K indices during
> > the declining years of the solar cycle and during solar minimum are
> > now less frequent and not as strong, keeping the K index consistently
> > low for about the next year.
> >
> >
> > - fast coronal mass ejections (fast CMEs) that cause much more severe
> > and more frequent geomagnetic disturbances won't start to occur
> > regularly until at least late next year.
> >
> >
> > - daytime D layer absorption that affects 160 and 80 meters much more
> > severely than 40 meters hasn't yet begun to increase significantly as
> > it will when we get closer to solar maximum
> >
> >
> > - E layer ionization ( not sporadic-E -- that's completely different)
> hasn't
> > yet begun to increase significantly. As we get closer to solar maximum
> > consistently higher E-layer MUFs will blanket 40 meter DX openings
> > until later in the afternoon.
> >
> >
> > Enjoy the ride especially this weekend in the CQWW CW DX Contest
> >
> >
> > 73
> > Frank
> > W3LPL
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >
> > From: "Alfred Laun" <hs0zar at gmail.com>
> > To: "PVRC" <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
> > Sent: Thursday, November 26, 2020 4:09:22 AM
> > Subject: [PVRC] Solar Cycle Rise
> >
> >
> >
> > We are seeing the Solar Flux Index hit a daily peak of 104 already, even
> though solar minimum is said to have been reached only 11 months ago in
> December 2019. I thought this seems faster than it rose last time, so I
> went to
> >
> > https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
> >
> >
> >
> > to take a look at what happened just after the last minimum. According
> to that chart, monthly average solar flux bottomed out at 65.7 in July of
> 2008. Monthly average solar flux did not get to over 100 until March of
> 2011, or 32 months later.
> >
> >
> >
> > Granted, the last solar minimum began with an SFI about 2 points lower
> than this latest minimum, but still, it looks to me like the rise is faster
> this cycle.
> >
> >
> > Yes, there are complications, like the difference between actual daily
> values and the smoothed daily values which are used to produce a visual
> curve that doesn't jump all over the place. And what we have today are
> daily values, not monthly values. But it still looks to me like things are
> moving along pretty fast.
> >
> >
> > I am not a scientist, so I invite all of those interested to go to that
> site, hover your mouse over the curve, and see what you come up with.
> >
> >
> > 73, Fred, K3ZO
> >
> > ______________________________________________________________
> > PVRC mailing list
> > Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/pvrc
> > Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm
> > Post: mailto:PVRC at mailman.qth.net
> > Message delivered to donovanf at starpower.net
> >
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> >
> > _______________________________________________
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>
>
> --
> Scott K9MA
>
> k9ma at sdellington.us
>
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