[CQ-Contest] Contesting and the FT8 Revolution

[Kevan Nason]

Ken, AB1J wrote:
"Can you tell me the geographic distribution of those 22 million/day
spots?  Much of the world is dark.  I'm on FT8 every day, using PSKReporter
via ViewProp for spots, which are shown on the N1MM+ bandmap and DX Atlas.
The view every day is the same: lots of EU and NA, some SA, a few AF
(mostly CT9, EA8, maybe ZS), a few Middle Eastern AS, some Far Eastern AS
(JA mostly), very few OC except some VK/ZL.  That's it. "

Did you watch the presentation of his methodology during CTU or view the
YouTUBE video, Ken? Jose's talk starts 5 hours and 39 minutes into it. Here
is the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-esob7BPtc

He did a pretty good job explaining how the distribution pattern you
mention isn't crucial. If you did watch him then maybe you didn't catch how
he has repeatedly used ionosode information in combination with those
unevenly distributed spots to give predictions based on actual (near) real
time atmospheric conditions -- and to explain why spots are NOT appearing
from regions recent ionosode data predicts he cannot reach. His method is
significantly different than just seeing where spots are by looking at them
plotted on a world map. It is also different from using the HamCAP and
VOACAP programs. Not only did he sell me during his CTU presentation, he so
impressed the CTU organizers that at the completion of his talk they
immediately gave him an invitation to present his ideas in greater depth at
the next Propagation Summit.

I'm pretty ignorant about this stuff, but am intrigued with what Jose
presented and planning to dig deeper into it. If you did follow how he is
using ionosodes with FT8 spots and think he is wrong, then please share
with us why you think that way. This is new stuff and your thoughts could
help define its limitations.

Kevan N4XL