[CQ-Contest] 2023 FQP Propagation Forecast (de K4EJ)

Chris Blake, NX4N cqdenx4n at gmail.com
Thu Apr 27 05:58:18 EDT 2023

GM All,
This Final Propagation report just came in overnight from Frank K4EJ - tnx
as always Frank!  A thorough report indeed.
*Looking good this weekend *- Fingers crossed that Ol' Sol just takes a
breath and calms down. 😎

*We're throwing a Party - hope to see you there!!*

vy 73/OJ,
Chris, NX4N

Propagation forecast for the weekend:

High solar wind speeds seem to correlate with the likelihood of disturbed
conditions.  Speeds over 600 km/s are usually accompanied by funky bands.

Over the past days, solar winds have been increasing. Today's measurement
at 20z (590 km/sec) was the highest for the day.

Looking back 27+ days from this FQP weekend, solar winds were in the
mid-500s and declining over the period. A decline in the solar winds over
the next couple of days would be a *welcome sign*, and should allow the
mobiles time to configure antenna systems and *box launchers* sufficient to
generate massive Qs while keeping the competitors at bay.

Aurora's this weekend will not be appreciated and only the OTs will
remember that on May 14, 1921 the strongest geomagnetic storm of the 20th
century sparked Northern Lights over Samoa.

Tad Cook (K7RA) provides a weekly look at propagation. Two weeks ago, he
predicted a declining solar flux to near 140 for the coming weekend.  *His
current forecast is optimistic*, with quite a jump on Friday (*125* on
April 26-27, *160* on April 28-29, *165* on April 30).  Spaceweather.com
predicts a minor G-1 event on Thursday.

 *NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)*

Solar activity is expected to be *very low* with a chance for C-class
flares and a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares
through 29 Apr.

Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced through 29 Apr due toCH
HSS and possible CME influences.

Unsettled to active geomagnetic levels are expected on 27 Apr with CH HSS
and possible CME arrival. G1 (Minor) storm periods are likely on 28 Apr due to
combined influences from a CH HSS and the driver portion of the 24 Apr CME.
Unsettled to active levels are likely on 29 Apr with waning CHHSS/CME

With all of us spewing RF, we'll open up 10m with enhanced propagation well
before the mobiles are underway on Saturday morning.

73 / OJ

Frank (K4EJ)

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