[NCC] Thanks to W1NN

Fri Jan 10 21:07:28 EST 2014

Hal:

Thanks very much for your inspiration!

As a result of your efforts, please put me on a team.

I won't be on for the full period, but I'll give it a go for as long as
possible.

Congrats on organizing many teams from our fine contest clubs. 

73,
Tim K3LR

-----Original Message-----
From: NCC [mailto:ncc-bounces at contesting.com] On Behalf Of Hal Offutt
Sent: Friday, January 10, 2014 7:21 PM
To: Mad River Radio Club; North Coast Contesters
Subject: [NCC] Thoughts on January NAQP CW Strategy (long)

Thoughts on January NAQP CW Strategy (long)

Suggestions

1.     Review your previous results before the contest

2.     Set a goal for this contest 

3.     Take your off-times before 0000Z

4.      Don't spend too much time "DX-ing" on 10 Meters

5.      80 meters is our "money band" followed by 40

6.      You should have a lot more mults on 160 than 10

7.      Move multipliers, especially if you are SO2R 

8.      NAQP is a great contest for SO2R

9.      OH and MI are ripe for new records

I've been looking at the past results for the January CW NAQP and thinking
about my own strategy.  Here is some hopefully interesting data on the
January session and a few thoughts on how to maximize your score in the
contest this Saturday.  There are many more qualified to expound on this
subject, but since they have not stepped forward, I will do so.  I hope
those with other suggestions or different views will provide input.  Most of
the above are pretty self evident I think, so I would like to concentrate on
off-time strategy.

As we all know, radio conditions in January are quite different from August,
and this difference shows up big time in the results.  Scores in January
tend to be a lot higher than in August.  In January 2013, the top two
stations had well over 1400 QSOs and an average of 278 multipliers compared
with 1100 QSOs and 227 multipliers for the top two in August.  The good
conditions in January boost scores from every part of the country, but they
seem to boost them more for stations in the southwest and west.  In August,
half of the top ten stations were from east of the Mississippi, but in
January only two (AA3B and N9CK) made it into the top ten.  This will make
it harder for our teams to get into the top ten but our individual scores
should still be much higher than in August, meaning more contacts and more
fun.

Overall, there two major differences.  First, the 10 meter band is a lot
better than it is in August.  Unfortunately, for those of us in NCC/MRRC
territory, this is not really good news.  Yes, we will find more stations
and mults to work there, and this is fun, but it is the stations in the
western US who benefit most from this.  They will be running up big totals
while we sit in their pileups trying to put them in the log.  We are the
fish in their barrel.   

Second, with more darkness, 80 and 160 are of course a lot better in
January.  This is a big plus for us.  We will be able to run and run and
run, and it will be those guys out west who will be the fish in our barrel.

It is these two differences that point to the best off-time strategy for us
in this part of the country.  

As you will recall, the NAQP is a 12 hour contest in which you are able to
operate a maximum of 10 hours.  This means that you must take at least two
hours off with each off-time at least 30 minutes long.  

When to take your off-times is the main strategic decision you have to make.
While you need to catch as many of those 10 meter and 15 meter mults as
possible, keep in mind that you are almost guaranteed to achieve higher
rates on the low bands than you can on the high bands.  To some degree,
strategy depends on the strengths and weaknesses of your particular station.
If you have a well-performing high-band antenna and you are able to maintain
good rates, by all means stay on 10 and 15 as long as you can.  But if your
rates are much below 60=70/hour, you may be hurting yourself because you can
probably do better on the low bands later on.  So I believe the best
strategy is to sweep 10 and 15 often to pick up multipliers but to keep an
eye on the rate meter and remember that you want to take your off-times when
your rates are low, not when they are high.  This means before 0000Z.

Here's what I do when I'm serious about a any contest, not just the NAQP.  I
go through my logs from past years and make a table of my hourly rates,
off-times and the bands I used each hour.  I try to see what I did right and
what I did wrong.  Usually this is pretty obvious.  I keep this data next to
me while I'm operating and I try to beat my previous Q totals each hour and
to not repeat my mistakes from previous years.    

A review of my own logs from past January NAQPs shows that my rates on the
high bands are sometimes half what I achieve later on the low bands.
Typically during the first couple of hours I will average between 50-70 per
hour, while my rates after 0000Z are often over 100.  Some years I have
taken the last hour or the last 30 minutes as off times.  This usually has
turned out to be a big mistake that cost me 40-50 or more contacts.  This
year one of my main goals is to make myself take all of my off-times prior
to 0000Z so that I can take full advantage of 40, 80 and 160.

The band breakdowns figures of N9CK, who is the closest station to most of
us to make the top ten in January 2013, are very instructive:

160        140/41

80          396/56

40          304/53

20          199/46

15          106/27

10          69/16

Total  1,214 QSOs 239 multipliers final score 290,146

Steve's best band by a wide margin was 80 meters, followed by 40.  He had
twice as many contacts and nearly 3 times as many multipliers on 160 as he
had on 10.  He is in Madison, WI so his propagation is somewhat different
from ours, but I think that his band breakdowns are probably pretty close to
what ours should be if we are to maximize our scores.  You could argue that
we ought to have better totals on 160 considering our more central location.

For some reason, scores from W8 to date seem to be well below those for
other areas.  Many stations in other call areas have produced QSO totals
over 1,000, but I can find only one station from OH/MI that has exceeded
1,000 contacts in this contest - W8MJ in 2003 had 1,006 contacts and his
score of 236,410 is the current record for MI.  The record for OH was set by
N8AA last year.  John had 897 contacts and 234 mults for a score of 209,898.

I can't think of any reason why we should produce lower scores than our
neighbors, so I believe that this is probably just an anomaly that will
shortly be corrected.  We have several stations with the potential to go
over 1,000 contacts and quite a few more who should be able to top 900. 

There are many more things that could be said, but this is already too long.
Good luck to everyone on Saturday and let's have fun in the contest!  

73, Hal W1NN

NAQP Whip  
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