[RFI] From Communications Daily re: BPL

[Ford Peterson]

Dave-AA6YQ wrote:

> I agree that we should stay out of the financial projection business,
> Ford. We should be in the "raise reasonable doubts" business; for
> example
> 
> 1. Why would a cable or DSL subscriber switch to BPL, given that BPL
> offers no significant feature, performance, or price advantages?
> ('blow-in' flyers won't come close; to displace a leading product
> (cable, DSL) with an undifferented alternative (BPL) requires marketing
> expenditures on the order of the leading product's annual revenues!
> Price discounting is considered a marketing expense)

Opportunity costs never factor in.  Offering a service for $30/mo when the competitor sells his for $40/mo does not result in any 'expense' to the discounter.  Sorry...

> 
> 2. How many hours of field labor are required to connect the first
> subscriber in a rural area? How many hours of field labor are required
> to connect the second subscriber in the same area? If BPL is a "last
> mile" solution that routes data over existing wiring, why are these hour
> numbers not 0?

When a system gets built out, they build out the system and all costs would be capitalized and depreciated over some useful life.  So if it costs $450K to build the system, they could easily pick a 12 year life, resulting in about $38K of annual expense.

> 3. Why have 3 pilots terminated with not plan to offer BPL service
> within the past 6 months?

BPL advocates would argue 'poor management.'  You and I might argue otherwise.  Each case is different.

> 4. What's the 90% confidence-level budget for addressing and correcting
> RF interference to local services?

Any answer is guess work.  The notion is ripe for twisting the numbers to make whatever argument you want to work and work well.


> These are kinds of questions we want asked in power company board board
> and stockholder meetings, in town councils and planning commissions, and
> especially by writers. The process is necessarily indirect -- few hams
> sit on power company boards -- but the more "airtime" these kinds of
> questions get, the more likely they are to eventually find their way to
> someplace useful.

Agreed...

> 
> Lately, the explanations offered by BPL advocates for the slow uptake of
> their technology provide good anti-BPL ammunition. The press release
> that initiated this thread contained some gems.

Agreed...
 
> One expense to add to your list below: connection to the network
> backbone. One 45mbps T3 line costs around $14K/mo.
> 
>      73,
> 
>          Dave, AA6YQ

Hmmmm....  I can think of one ISP with a T1 line that serves over 1000 customers and never gets to 60% usage.  That line costs $1200/mo.  I can think of another ISP that has cut a deal to share a partially used line already installed at a business.  You are correct, a pipe can be expensive--especially if they have to build the pipe for many miles to get it to where you can connect.  But opportunities knock on doors all day long.  People are stitching pipes into the ground every day of the week all over this country.  Your mileage in terms of $/mile will vary depending on how much you pay for your gas.  Some phone companies charge based on how much the line is used, which is a much different equation, and considerably cheaper.

You have proved my point Dave.  Stick to the RF side of things because your numbers don't add up in the minds of board members who are looking at hard numbers being described by smart people.  Every time you blow out numbers like $14K / month, you lose credibility unless it matches the board member's reality.  If you know, then speak.  If you don't know, then say you don't know.  There is one thing I learned many years ago, never 'guess' unless you say you are guessing.

Keep the faith!  BPL is going through it's final death throws.  If we stay the course we're on, the very bright flash and a mushroom cloud will appear on the horizon, with the bankruptcy-to-failure conversions soon to follow...

Ford-N0FP
ford at cmgate.com