[RSM] Cycle 25 Prediction from NOAA

[ed_richardson at shaw.ca]

Early this month SWPC published their official updated prediction of Solar
Cycle 25 in a new user-interactive graph format. Their updated prediction is
based on the results of NOAA's Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. 

 

www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
<http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>  

 

SWPC forecasts a solar maximum between 105 and 125 with the peak occurring
between November 2024 and March 2026. There is broad consensus that Solar
Minimum is ongoing this year -- or may have already occurred -- and that
Cycle 25 will have no major change in the level of solar activity compared
to Cycle 24. 

 

For many years SWPC's solar cycle predictions have used the Royal
Observatory of Belgium's International Sunspot Number. SWPC's official solar
cycle prediction now uses the SWPC sunspot number. The International Sunspot
Number is typically about one third lower than the SWPC sunspot number. 

 

While this is SWPC's official Cycle 25 prediction, its important to note
there is still divergence among various forecasting methods and members of
the space weather forecasting community. Most forecasts and forecasters
agree that the Cycle 25 is likely to be within plus or minus

20 percent of Cycle 24 and is likely to occur between 2024 and 2027. 

 

link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z/tables/2 

 

 

Ed Richardson