[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal likely thru Thurs

[Art Boyars]

From: donovanf at erols.com
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 1 Dec 2021 01:41:31 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals late Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals late
Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 90 through Thursday. There
are five active regions on the visible disk with 11 tiny to small sunspots
mildly improving 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation through
Thursday. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with
possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal with possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals
through Thursday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to
east Asia after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible
slightly to mildly below normal intervals through Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals
through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible slightly to
mildly below normal intervals through Thursday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals through
Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be somewhat less
reliable and shorter in duration.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high* *speed
stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz)
of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
plays a *crucial but unpredictable* *role* in triggering all geomagnetic
storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength of 5 nanoTeslas or more for several hours *coincident with*
the effects of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed stream*. More
frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with

IMF field strength significantly greater than 5 nanoTeslas for several
hours or more *coincident with* the effects of an Earth directed fast
CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation are available
here: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

The solar wind is likely to be strengthened by coronal hole high speed
stream enhancements through Thursday and a possible glancing blow by a CME
late Thursday

The geomagnetic field is likely to mostly quiet through Thursday with
unsettled intervals late Thursday caused by coronal hole high speed stream
enhancements and a possible glancing blow by a CME late Thursday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 79 minutes earlier and daylength
is 150 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd. Daytime ionization
and residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region is very
low due to polar night effects.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net