[RSM] W3LPL weekend forecast

[Art Boyars]

From: donovanf at erols.com
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 3 Dec 2021 01:11:41 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation with mildly below normal
intervals early Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
isolated below normal intervals early Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with moderately below normal intervals early Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 84 through Sunday. There
are two active regions on the visible disk with 14 tiny to small sunspots
having a slight effect on HF propagation.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with moderately
below normal intervals early Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal with moderately below normal intervals early Sunday. 40
meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about
0730Z is likely to be mostly normal with moderately below normal intervals
early Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with moderately below normal intervals early Sunday. 30
meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with moderately below normal
intervals early Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours
of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with moderately below
normal intervals during Sunday

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with moderately below normal intervals during Sunday while 12 and 10 meter
long distance propagation is likely to be significantly less reliable and
shorter in duration.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high* *speed
stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz)
of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
plays a *crucial but unpredictable* *role* in triggering all geomagnetic
storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident with* the
effects of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed stream*. More
frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

The solar wind is likely to be mildly disturbed by coronal hole high speed
stream effects through Sunday and a possible glancing blow by a CME on
Friday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to mostly quiet to unsettled with active
intervals early Sunday caused by coronal hole high speed stream
enhancements and a possible glancing blow by a CME on Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 80 minutes earlier and daylength
is 153 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd. Daytime ionization
and residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region is very
low due to polar night effects.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net