[RSM] W3LPL forecast, relayed by W3UR "Daily DX"

[Art Boyars]

From: "Bernie McClenny, W3UR" <bernie at dailydx.com>
To: PVRC reflector <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 9 Dec 2021 06:58:10 -0500
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation with mildly depressed MUFs due to
near solar minimum conditions through Friday The following is from W3LPL -
 My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through
Friday with mildly depressed MUFs due to near solar minimum conditions.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal through Friday with mildly depressed MUFs due to
near solar minimum conditions.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ’s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.
Click [ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH’s current HF
Band Conditions , updated regularly

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 78 through Friday.
The sun is spotless.
[ https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal
through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal through Friday. 40 meter short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0730Z is likely
to be mostly normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly normal with mildly depressed night time MUFs through
Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with mildly depressed
evening MUFs through Friday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few
hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with mildly
depressed
pre-sunrise and post-sunset MUFs through Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly
normal with mildly depressed MUFs through early Friday while 12 and 10
meter long distance propagation is likely to be unreliable and short in
duration due to near solar minimum conditions.    Geomagnetic disturbances
caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to
remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward orientation
(-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic
storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered
when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the
effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More
frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward
orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5
nanoteslas for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength
are available here:
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be near nominal on Thursday. A CME
passing close to Earth on Friday may cause moderately elevated wind speed.

The geomagnetic field is likely to mostly quiet with possible
unsettled intervals through Friday due to waning coronal hole high speed
stream effects. A CME passing close to Earth on Friday may cause a
chance of isolated active intervals.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 80 minutes earlier and day
length is 158 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.


Daytime ionization and residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar
region is very low due near solar minimum conditions and no ionizing solar
radiation in the northern polar region.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for
today’s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily. Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
 for today’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three
hours. Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC
Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.
Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for
today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily. Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net


Bernie McClenny, W3UR

Editor of: The Daily DX (1997-2021)
   The Weekly DX (2001-2021)
   How's DX? (1999-2021)

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