[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal, slight chance brief fadeouts thru Wed

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2021 00:48:50 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation with a slight chance of brief
shortwave fadeouts through Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
through Wednesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Wednesday with possible minor MUF depressions after
late Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
 for today’s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 122 through Wednesday.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be normal on Tuesday
and mostly normal on Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday. 40 meter short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0730Z is likely to
be normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday. 30 meter
propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on
Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise
and sunset is likely to be normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal on Tuesday
and mostly normal on Wednesday while 12 and 10 meter long distance
propagation is likely to be less reliable and shorter in duration due to
winter seasonal effects.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz)
of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all geomagnetic
storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident with* the
effects of an Earth directed *coronal* *hole high speed stream*. More
frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be slightly enhanced by coronal hole high
speed stream effects on Tuesday, then moderately enhanced through Wednesday.

The geomagnetic field likely to be mostly quiet with probable
unsettled intervals
with a chance of brief active intervals after an increase in coronal hole
high speed effects early Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of brief short wave fadeouts on the sun facing side
of the Earth through Wednesday due to possible M-class flares.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic storms and
active geomagnetic
conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 4 minutes later and day length
is 1 minute longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are very low due
the lack of ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for
today’s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily. Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
 for today’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three
hours. Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC
Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.
Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for
today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily. Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net



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