[RSM] W3LPL: "Mostly normal propagation is likely through Tuesday July 13th"

Mon Jul 12 17:39:52 EDT 2021

Normal...except for 6-meters. I had no luck today, not even a decode 
closer to EU than VE9UN and a couple of VE1s after working ME and QC 
very, very, early with huge signals.

I do know a bunch of RSM members, and other Winnipeg folks, did have 
luck working across the pond. Congratulations!

On 7/12/2021 5:36 AM, Art Boyars wrote:
> From: donovanf at erols.com
> To: PVRC Submissions <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2021 00:21:24 -0400 (EDT)
> Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely through Tuesday July
> 13th
>
> My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC
>
> web pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.
>
>
>
> Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through
>
> Tuesday.
>
>
>
> Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal on Monday
>
> and mostly normal on Tuesday.
>
>
>
> Propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
>
> to be mostly normal on Monday with below normal intervals
>
> through midday Tuesday then returning to mostly normal through
>
> late Tuesday.
>
>
>
> Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
> for today’s
> latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.
>
> Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
> Conditions, updated regularly.
>
>
>
> We are in the quiet geomagnetic activity season, only about half
>
> as many geomagnetically disturbed days occur in June and July
>
> compared to the more geomagnetically active equinox seasons.
>
>
>
> Sporadic-E propagation occurs every day during June and July
>
> at mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere making long distance
>
> propagation up to 15,000 km sporadically available in the
>
> 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter bands from sunrise through midnight
>
> and occasionally somewhat later.
>
>
>
> The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be 74 or less through Tuesday.
>
> There are two small active regions on the solar visible disk with
>
> one small sunspot and two tiny sunspots.
>
> https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg
>
>
>
> 160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
>
> the south Pacific is likely to be seasonably normal through Tuesday.
>
> 40 meter short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be mostly
>
> normal at about 0015Z Tuesday. 40 meter short path propagation
>
> from North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be
>
> mostly normal on Monday with below normal intervals on Tuesday.
>
>
>
> 30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions
>
> is likely to mostly normal on Monday with below normal intervals
>
> on Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
>
> within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing
>
> of long distance F2 propagation. 30 meter night time long distance
>
> propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve due to
>
> increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude regions
>
> caused by higher solar elevation angles and short nights with no source
>
> of ionizing solar radiation.
>
>
>
> 20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
>
> and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday with
>
> below normal intervals on Tuesday. 20 meter northern transpolar
>
> propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is improving
>
> with increased solar ionizing radiation on the northern polar region
>
> caused by high solar elevation angles 24 hours per day during the
>
> midnight sun season. 20 meter long distance propagation is significantly
>
> degraded from mid-morning through late afternoon at low and
>
> mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere by F1 region midday
>
> blanketing of low angle propagation during the summer. 20 meter
>
> late afternoon, nighttime and early morning long distance propagation
>
> in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased
>
> ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused
>
> by higher solar elevation angles and short nights with no source of
>
> ionizing solar radiation.
>
>
>
> 17 and 15 meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern
>
> hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar
>
> radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by high solar
>
> elevation angles and long days. 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter
>
> sporadic-E propagation up to 15,000 km is likely to be sporadically
>
> available from sunrise through midnight and occasionally later
>
> through late July.
>
>
>
> Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by coronal hole high speed stream*
>
> effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
>
> frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz)
>
> component of the IMF plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in
>
> triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
>
> storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward
>
> orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours
>
> *coincident with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed*
>
> *stream*. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic
>
> storms may be triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF
>
> persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength
>
> for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects of an Earth directed
>
> fast CME.
>
>
>
> The solar wind is expected to be moderately enhanced through Tuesday.
>
> The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to unsettled on Monday,
>
> unsettled to active through midday Tuesday, then improving the quiet
>
> to unsettled after midday Tuesday. The solar wind is expected to be
>
> moderately enhanced on Monday and Tuesday due coronal hole
>
> high speed stream effects. There is a slight chance of brief propagation
>
> degradation at high latitudes before Tuesday caused by stronger coronal
>
> high speed stream effects. There is a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic
>
> storm before midday Tuesday. Coronal mass ejection (CME) effects
>
> are not likely through Tuesday.
>
>
>
> Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 2 minutes earlier and
>
> daylength is 13 minutes shorter than it was on the June 21st. Daylength
>
> and solar elevation angle in the northern polar region are slowly declining
>
> through mid-July due to gradually waning summer solstice effects.
>
>
>
> Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
> Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
>
> Click *here*
> <https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
> for today’s
> three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.
>
> Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
> Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.
>
> Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
> for today's
> SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.
>
> Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
> Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
> daily.
>
>
>
> Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
>
> http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net
> _______________________________________________
> RSM mailing list
> RSM at contesting.com
> http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/rsm

-- 
73,

Jack, K0JP/VE3RUA

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