[RSM] W3LPL's propagation forecast

[Art Boyars]

I am forwarding this as an example.  I will check with W3LPL about the
propriety of forwarding it, or if he could post direct to RSM.

Art K3KU/VE4VTR
====================
From: donovanf at erols.com
To: pvrc reflector <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 2021 02:31:53 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Normal Propagation Conditions are likely through Friday

Long distance propagation forecast for Thursday and Friday, March 11-12

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC

web pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.



Propagation is likely to be normal through at least Thursday.



Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.



The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to remain at about 79 though at

least Friday. One tiny sunspot on the visible disk is having little

effect on HF propagation.



We are in the March-April geomagnetic storm season when the earth

passes through the part of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)

with more frequent, longer duration southward oriented magnetic

field. Approximately twice as many brief minor and moderate

geomagnetic storms are likely to occur during March and April

compared to the quieter IMF during June and July. Brief minor to

moderate geomagnetic storms may be triggered with little warning

when the IMF rotates to a southward orientation and persists for

several hours *coincident with* the effects of earth directed coronal

hole high speed stream enhancements in the solar wind.



160 and 80 meter propagation is likely to be normal through

at least Friday. 160 and 80 meter short path propagation to

south Asia is likely to be normal at 0200Z through at least

Friday. 160 and 80 meter short path propagation from North

America to east Asia is likely to be normal through at least

Friday. 80 meter long path propagation from North America

to southeast Asia at about 2330Z is likely to be normal

through at least Friday.



40 meter propagation is likely to be normal through at least

Friday. 40 and 30 meter long path propagation from North

America to southeast Asia at about 2330Z is likely to be

normal through at least Friday.



30 meter propagation from a few hours before sunrise until

a few hours after sunset in the northern hemisphere is likely

to be normal through at least Friday. 30 meter propagation

is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local

noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2

propagation. 30 meter propagation is unreliable during most

of the night in the northern hemisphere because of insufficient

residual night time F region electron density due to one

tiny sunspot on the earth facing solar disk.



20 meter daytime propagation is likely to be normal through

at least Friday. Night time 20 meter propagation in the northern

hemisphere continues to be very unreliable because of

insufficient residual F region electron density due to one tiny

sunspot on the earth facing solar disk.



17 meter daytime propagation in the northern hemisphere

continues to be shorter in duration because of insufficient

F2 region electron density due to one tiny sunspot on the

visible solar disk and the long duration of darkness at high

northern latitudes. 15 meter daytime propagation in the

northern hemisphere continues to be unreliable and shorter

in duration because of insufficient F2 region electron density

due to one tiny sunspot on the visible solar disk. 12 and 10

meter daytime propagation is likely to be unreliable and mostly

limited to propagation from North America to Southern Africa,

South Atlantic, South America and South Pacific regions.



Active geomagnetic conditions *caused by coronal hole high*

*speed streams* are likely to remain mostly minor, brief and

relatively infrequent through at least late 2021. Brief minor

to moderate geomagnetic storms may be triggered when the

IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced

field strength for several hours *coincident with* the effects of

earth directed coronal hole high speed stream related

enhancements in the solar wind.



IMF field strength and solar wind speed near earth are likely

to be at ambient levels through at least Friday. Geomagnetic

activity is likely to remain quiet through at least Friday.

No earth directed coronal hole high speed streams, CMEs or

solar flares strong enough to affect HF propagation are likely

through at least Friday.



Northern hemisphere daylength is 140 minutes longer than it

was on December 21st. Sunset is now 86 minutes later than it

was on December 9th. Daylength is increasing by two minutes

per day which is steadily reducing the duration of common

darkness between distant locations in the northern hemisphere.



Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.



Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:

dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net and hamqsl.com/solar.html
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html>