[RSM] W3LPL prop forecast for Monday, Mar 15

[Art Boyars]

Forwarded from PVRC reflector.  Note that Frank says his forecast is
published Mon-Fri in the Daily DX, so that is another way you could get it.

73, Art K3KU/VE4VTR
===================

From: donovanf at erols.com
To: pvrc reflector <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 2021 02:13:02 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation on Monday gradually improving to
normal on Tuesday

Long distance propagation forecast for Monday and Tuesday, March 15-16

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web

pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.



Low latitude propagation is likely to be normal through at least

Tuesday. Mid-latitude, propagation is likely to by mostly normal

after 1200Z Monday then normal on Tuesday. Auroral zone and

polar propagation is likely to be mostly normal with unsettled

intervals on Monday, then mostly normal with possible unsettled

intervals on Tuesday.



Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.



The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to remain at about 78 though at

least Tuesday. There are two solar regions on the visible disk with

a total of only three tiny sunspots having no significant effects on

HF propagation.



We are in the March-April geomagnetic storm season when the earth

passes through the part of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)

with more frequent, longer duration southward oriented magnetic

field. Approximately twice as many brief minor and moderate

geomagnetic storms occur during March and April compared to the

quieter IMF during June and July. Brief minor to moderate

geomagnetic storms may be triggered with little warning when the

IMF rotates to a southward orientation and persists for several hours

*coincident with* the effects of earth directed coronal hole high speed

stream enhancements in the solar wind.



160 through 17 meter low latitude propagation is likely to be normal

through at least Tuesday.



160 and 80 meter mid-latitude propagation is likely to be normal

with below normal intervals on Monday then normal on Tuesday.

160 and 80 meter short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be

mostly normal at 0200Z Tuesday. 80 meter short path propagation

from North America to east Asia is likely to be mostly normal with

below normal intervals on Monday then mostly normal on Tuesday.

80 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast Asia

at about 2330Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday then normal

on Tuesday.



40 meter mid-latitude propagation is likely to be normal with below

normal intervals on Monday then normal on Tuesday. 40 and 30 meter

long path propagation from North America to southeast Asia at about

2330Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday then normal on Tuesday.



30 meter mid-latitude propagation is likely to be normal with below

normal intervals on Monday then normal on Tuesday. 30 meter auroral

zone and polar propagation is likely to be mostly normal with below

normal intervals on Monday then mostly normal on Tuesday. 30 meter

propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of

local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2

propagation. 30 meter propagation is unreliable during most of the night

in the northern hemisphere because of insufficient residual night time

F region electron density due to tiny sunspots on the earth facing solar

disk.



20 meter mid-latitude propagation is likely to be normal with below

normal intervals on Monday then normal on Tuesday. 20 meter

daytime auroral zone and polar propagation is likely to be mostly

normal with below normal intervals on Monday then mostly normal

on Tuesday. Night time 20 meter propagation in the northern

hemisphere continues to be very unreliable because of insufficient

residual F region electron density due to tiny sunspots on the earth

facing solar disk.



17 and 15 meter daytime mid-latitude propagation in the northern

hemisphere continues to be shorter in duration because of insufficient

F2 region electron density due to tiny sunspots on the visible solar

disk. 12 and 10 meter daytime propagation is likely to be unreliable

and mostly limited to propagation from North America to Southern

Africa, South Atlantic, South America and South Pacific regions.



Active geomagnetic conditions *caused by coronal hole high speed*

*streams* are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and relatively

infrequent through at least late 2021. Brief minor to moderate

geomagnetic storms may be triggered when the IMF persists in a

southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced field strength for several

hours *coincident with* the effects of earth directed coronal hole high

speed stream enhancements in the solar wind.



IMF field strength, solar wind speed near earth, coronal hole high

speed stream effects and geomagnetic activity are likely to gradually

return to nominal levels after 1200Z Monday then decline to

background levels on Tuesday. Earth directed CMEs or solar flares

strong enough to affect HF propagation are not likely through at least

Tuesday.



Northern hemisphere daylength is 150 minutes longer than it was on

December 21st. Sunset is now 90 minutes later than it was on

December 9th. Daylength is increasing by two minutes per day which

is steadily reducing the duration of common darkness between distant

locations in the northern hemisphere.



Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.



Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:

dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net and hamqsl.com/solar.html
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html>