[RSM] RSM Digest, Vol 54, Issue 13

Tue Mar 16 20:50:32 EDT 2021

Propagation Report
This is a lot of things to think about, and it may be somewhat valid in
mid-Atlantic states, but it seems to bear little relation to the aether
over the Prairies.

73 David

On Tue, Mar 16, 2021 at 11:01 AM <rsm-request at contesting.com> wrote:

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> Today's Topics:
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>    1. W3LPL prop forecast 2021 03 16 (Art Boyars)
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Message: 1
> Date: Tue, 16 Mar 2021 08:29:51 -0400
> From: Art Boyars <artboyars at gmail.com>
> To: rsm <rsm at contesting.com>
> Subject: [RSM] W3LPL prop forecast 2021 03 16
> Message-ID:
>         <CAJFNq0GPRbzv2WryNgtGUrKKEFad-PNn0e6+8Vns2T0H9=
> o2Og at mail.gmail.com>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
>
> From: donovanf at erols.com
> To: pvrc reflector <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
> Cc:
> Bcc:
> Date: Tue, 16 Mar 2021 01:47:44 -0400 (EDT)
> Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal through Wednesday
>
> Long distance propagation forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, March 16-17
>
> My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web
>
> pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.
>
>
>
> Low and mid-latitude propagation is likely to be normal through at
>
> least Wednesday. Auroral zone and polar propagation is likely to be
>
> mostly normal on Tuesday, then normal on Wednesday.
>
>
>
> Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
> for today?s
> latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.
>
> Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH?s current HF
> Band
> Conditions, updated regularly.
>
>
>
> The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to remain at about 75 though at
>
> least Wednesday. There is only one tiny sunspot on the visible disk
>
> having no significant effect on HF propagation.
>
>
>
> We are in the March-April geomagnetic storm season when the earth
>
> passes through the part of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
>
> with more frequent, longer duration southward oriented magnetic
>
> field. Approximately twice as many brief minor and moderate
>
> geomagnetic storms occur during March and April compared to the
>
> quieter IMF during June and July. Brief minor to moderate
>
> geomagnetic storms may be triggered with little warning when the
>
> IMF rotates to a southward orientation and persists for several hours
>
> *coincident with* the effects of earth directed coronal hole high speed
>
> stream enhancements in the solar wind.
>
>
>
> 160 through 17 meter low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be
>
> normal through Wednesday.
>
>
>
> 160 and 80 meter short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be
>
> normal at 0200Z Wednesday. 80 meter short path propagation from
>
> North America to east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday
>
> then normal on Wednesday. 80, 40 and 30 meter long path propagation
>
> from North America to southeast Asia at about 2330Z is likely to be
>
> normal through Wednesday.
>
>
>
> 30 meter auroral zone and polar propagation is likely to be mostly
>
> normal on Tuesday then normal on Wednesday. 30 meter propagation
>
> is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon
>
> because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.
>
> 30 meter propagation is unreliable during most of the night in the
>
> northern hemisphere because of insufficient residual night time
>
> F region electron density due to only one tiny sunspot on the visible
>
> disk.
>
>
>
> 20 meter daytime auroral zone and polar propagation is likely to be
>
> mostly normal on Tuesday then normal on Wednesday. Night time
>
> 20 meter propagation in the northern hemisphere continues to be
>
> very unreliable because of insufficient residual F region electron
>
> density due to only one tiny sunspot on the visible disk.
>
>
>
> 17 and 15 meter daytime mid-latitude propagation in the northern
>
> hemisphere continues to be shorter in duration because of insufficient
>
> F2 region electron density due to only one tiny sunspot on the visible
>
> disk. 12 and 10 meter daytime propagation is likely to be unreliable
>
> and mostly limited to propagation from North America to Southern
>
> Africa, South Atlantic, South America and South Pacific regions.
>
>
>
> Active geomagnetic conditions *caused by coronal hole high speed*
>
> *streams* are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and relatively
>
> infrequent through at least late 2021. Brief minor to moderate
>
> geomagnetic storms may be triggered when the IMF persists in a
>
> southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced field strength for several
>
> hours *coincident with* the effects of earth directed coronal hole
>
> high speed stream enhancements in the solar wind.
>
>
>
> IMF field strength, solar wind speed near earth, coronal hole high speed
>
> stream effects and geomagnetic activity are likely to decline to quiescent
>
> levels through Wednesday. Earth directed CMEs or solar flares strong
>
> enough to affect HF propagation are not likely through Wednesday.
>
>
>
> Northern hemisphere daylength is 153 minutes longer than it was on
>
> December 21st. Sunset is now 91 minutes later than it was on
>
> December 9th. Daylength is increasing by two minutes per day which
>
> is steadily reducing the duration of common darkness between distant
>
> locations in the northern hemisphere.
>
>
>
> Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for
> today?s
> Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.
>
> Click *here*
> <
> https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
> >
> for today?s
> three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.
>
> Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
> Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.
>
> Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
> for today's
> SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.
>
> Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
> Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
> daily.
>
>
>
> Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
>
> dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net and hamqsl.com/solar.html
> <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Subject: Digest Footer
>
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> ------------------------------
>
> End of RSM Digest, Vol 54, Issue 13
> ***********************************
>

-- 
73 de David VE4DL