[RSM] W3LPL prop forecast Fri-Sunday Mar 26-28

Fri Mar 26 09:06:18 EDT 2021

This should get you through WPX SSB.  Have fun.  I'll be offline from this
evening through Monday night. No response yet as to whether I should keep
forwarding these to RSM.

73, Art VE4VTR/K3KU
==============================
From: donovanf at erols.com
To: pvrc reflector <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 26 Mar 2021 00:52:14 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation likely to be mostly normal through Saturday,
mostly below normal Sunday

Long distance propagation forecast for Friday through Sunday, March 26-28

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web

pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.

Low and mid-latitude propagation is likely to be normal on Friday.

Auroral zone and polar propagation is likely to be mostly normal

with below normal intervals on Friday

Low latitude propagation during the CQ World-Wide WPX Contest

is likely to be normal on Saturday and mostly below normal on Sunday.

Mid-latitude propagation is likely to normal on Saturday and mostly

below normal on Sunday. Auroral zone and polar propagation is likely

to be mostly normal with below normal intervals on Saturday and

below normal on Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to remain at about 78 though at

least Sunday. There are two small sunspot regions on the visible disk

with four tiny sunspots having no significant effect on HF propagation.

We are in the most disturbed weeks of the March-April geomagnetic

storm season when the earth passes through the part of the interplanetary

magnetic field (IMF) with the most frequent, longest duration southward

oriented magnetic field. Approximately twice as many brief minor and

moderate geomagnetic storms occur during March and April compared

to the quieter IMF during June and July. Brief minor to moderate

geomagnetic storms may be triggered with little warning when the IMF

rotates to a southward orientation and persists for several hours

*coincident **with* the effects of earth directed coronal hole high speed

stream and coronal mass ejection (CME) enhancements in the solar

wind.

160 and 80 meter short path propagation from North America to

VK/ZL is likely to be normal through Saturday and mostly normal

on Sunday. 160 and 80 meter short path propagation to south Asia

at about 0200Z is likely to be normal through Saturday and below

normal on Sunday. 80 meter short path propagation from North

America to east Asia is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday

and below normal on Sunday. 80, 40 and 30 meter long path

propagation from North America to southeast Asia at about 2330Z

is likely to be normal on Friday and below normal on Saturday and

Sunday.

30 meter auroral zone and polar propagation is likely to be mostly

normal through Saturday and below normal on Sunday. 30 meter

propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of

local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2

propagation. 30 meter long distance propagation is unreliable during

most of the night in the northern hemisphere because of insufficient

residual night time F region electron density due to only four tiny

sunspots on the visible disk.

20 meter daytime auroral zone and polar propagation is likely to be

mostly normal through Saturday and below normal on Sunday.

20 meter northern hemisphere trans-polar propagation within a few

hours of sunrise and sunset will steadily improve with gradually

increasing electron density in the polar cap F2 region through June.

Night time 20 meter long distance propagation in the northern

hemisphere continues to be very unreliable because of insufficient

residual F region electron density due to only four tiny sunspots

on the visible disk.

17 and 15 meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern

hemisphere continues to be shorter in duration because of insufficient

F2 region electron density due to only four tiny sunspots on the

visible disk. 12 and 10 meter daytime long distance propagation is

likely to be unreliable and mostly limited to propagation from North

America to Southern Africa, South Atlantic, South America and South

Pacific regions.

Active geomagnetic conditions *caused by coronal hole high speed*

*streams* are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and relatively

infrequent through at least late 2021. Brief minor to moderate

geomagnetic storms may be triggered when the IMF persists in a

southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced field strength for several

hours *coincident with* the effects of earth directed coronal hole high

speed stream and CME enhancements in the solar wind.

IMF field strength, solar wind speed near earth, coronal hole high

speed stream effects and geomagnetic activity are likely to be at

mostly background levels through Saturday and at moderately

elevated levels on Sunday due to coronal hole high speed stream

effects. More frequent -- although mostly not earth directed -- CMEs

occurring this month are an indicator of increasing solar cycle 25

activity. Its only a matter of time before more frequent earth directed

CMEs cause more sudden, severe and longer lasting geomagnetic

storms. Solar flares strong enough to affect HF propagation are not

likely through Sunday.

Mid latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 6 minutes later and

daylength is 15 minutes longer than it was on the March 20th.

Daylength is increasing by two minutes per day which is steadily

lengthening the duration of common daylight between distant

locations in the northern hemisphere. Daylength at far northern

polar latitudes is increasing by 30 minutes per day and will reach

24 hours of daylight on April 7th, significantly improving 20 meter

trans-polar propagation through June.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:

http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net

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