[RSM] W3LPL forecast Tue-Wed Mar 30-31

[Art Boyars]

So far I have one RSMer who likes having these forecasts, and none
complaining about the use of Reflector bandwidth.  (Complaints should be
sent directly to me, and I will not reveal any names.)

73, Art VE4VTR/K3KU

From: donovanf at erols.com
To: PVRC Group <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 2021 01:16:17 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation through Wednesday

Long distance propagation forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, March 30-31

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web

pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.



Low and mid-latitude propagation is likely to be normal through

Wednesday. Auroral oval and polar propagation is likely to be

mostly normal with below normal intervals through Wednesday.


Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.



The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to remain at about 75 though

at least Wednesday. There is only one small sunspot region on the

visible disk with three tiny sunspots having no significant effect

on HF propagation.



We are in the most disturbed weeks of the March-April geomagnetic

storm season when the earth passes through the part of the

interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) with the most frequent, longest

duration southward oriented IMF. Approximately twice as many brief

minor and moderate geomagnetic storms occur during March and

April compared to the quieter IMF during June and July. Brief minor

to moderate geomagnetic storms may be triggered with little warning

when the IMF rotates to a southward orientation and persists for

several hours *coincident with* the effects of earth directed coronal hole

high speed streams and coronal mass ejection (CME) enhancements

in the solar wind.



160 and 80 meter short path propagation from North America to

VK/ZL is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 80 and 40 meter

short path propagation to south Asia at about 0200Z is likely to be

mostly normal through Wednesday. 80 and 40 meter short path

propagation from North America to east Asia is likely to be mostly

normal with below normal intervals through Wednesday.



40 and 30 meter long path propagation from North America to

southeast Asia at about 2330Z is likely to be normal through

Wednesday.



30 meter auroral oval and polar propagation is likely to be mostly

normal with below normal intervals through Wednesday. 30 meter

propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours

of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance

F2 propagation. 30 meter long distance propagation is unreliable

during most of the night in the northern hemisphere because of

insufficient residual night time F region electron density due to

only three tiny sunspots on the visible disk.



20 meter daytime auroral oval and polar propagation is likely to be

mostly normal with below normal intervals through Wednesday.

20 meter northern hemisphere trans-polar propagation within a

few hours of sunrise and sunset will steadily improve with gradually

increasing electron density in the polar cap F2 region through June.

Night time 20 meter long distance propagation in the northern

hemisphere continues to be very unreliable because of insufficient

residual F region electron density due to only three tiny sunspots

on the visible disk.



17 and 15 meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern

hemisphere continues to be shorter in duration because of insufficient

F2 region electron density due to only three tiny sunspots on the

visible disk. 12 and 10 meter daytime long distance propagation

is likely to be unreliable and mostly limited to propagation from

North America to Southern Africa, South Atlantic, South America

and South Pacific regions.



Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by coronal hole high speed*

*streams* are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and relatively

infrequent through at least late 2021. The IMF plays a crucial role

in triggering brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms when

it persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced field

strength for several hours *coincident with* the effects of an earth

directed coronal hole high speed stream or CME enhancements

in the solar wind.



IMF field strength, solar wind speed near earth and geomagnetic

activity are likely to be slightly to mildly enhanced through

Wednesday because of coronal hole high speed stream influence.

Geomagnetic storms and solar flares strong enough to affect

HF propagation are not likely through Wednesday.



Mid latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 10 minutes later

and daylength is 25 minutes longer than it was on the March 20th.

Daylength is increasing by two minutes per day which is steadily

lengthening the duration of common daylight between distant

locations in the northern hemisphere. Daylength at polar latitudes

is approximately 17 hours and increasing by 30 minutes per day

until it reaches 24 hours of daylight on April 7th, significantly

improving 20 meter trans-polar propagation through June.



Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.



Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net/


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