[RSM] W3LPL forecast Mon/31 - Tue/1

[Arthur]

Long distance propagation forecast for Monday and Tuesday May 31-June 1

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC
web pages is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.
 
Low-latitude propagation is likely to be normal through late Tuesday.
 
Mid-latitude propagation is likely to be normal through early Tuesday,
degrading to mostly normal through late Tuesday.
 
Propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through early Tuesday with a possibility of
below normal periods late Tuesday. 
 
Click here for today’s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.
Click here for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions, updated regularly.
 
We are now in the quiet geomagnetic activity season, only about
half as many geomagnetically disturbed days occur in June and July
than during the more geomagnetically disturbed equinox seasons. 
 
Near solar minimum conditions have returned with the solar flux index
(SFI) likely to be only about 72 through Tuesday. Two active regions
containing seven tiny sunspots are having minimal effect on HF
propagation.
 
160 and 80 meter short path propagation from North America to
VK/ZL and the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be mostly
normal at about 0015Z Tuesday. 40 meter short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0930Zis likely to be
normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.
 
30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal through early Tuesday with a possibility
of below normal periods late Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always
significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation. 30 meter
night time propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve
due to longer daylight duration and increased ionizing solar radiation
in the northern polar region because of the midnight sun.
 
20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through early Tuesday
with a possibility of below normal periods late Tuesday. 20 meter
northern transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and
sunset is improving with increased solar radiation on the northern
polar region. 20 meter night time long distance propagation in the
northern hemisphere is likely to improve due to longer daylight
duration and increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern
polar region because of the midnight sun.
 
17 and 15 meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern
hemisphere is likely to improve due to longer daylight duration.
15, 12, 10 and 6 meter daytime and evening long distance propagation
is likely to be sporadically enhanced by sporadic-E propagation
through July.
 
Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed
streams are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat
less frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented
(-Bz) component of the IMF plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF
persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF
field strength for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent,
longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered
suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward
orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an earth directed CME.
 
IMF field strength, solar wind speed near earth and geomagnetic
activity are likely to be at near ambient levels through early Tuesday.
There is a slight chance of a brief minor geomagnetic storm late
Tuesday due to a weak Earth directed coronal high speed stream
and a possible glancing blow by an Earth directed coronal mass
ejection (CME).
 
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 67 minutes later
and daylength is 153 minutes longer than it was on the March 20th.
Daylength is increasing by about one minute per day which is slowly
lengthening the duration of common daylight between distant
locations in the northern hemisphere. The elevation angle of the
midnight sun in the northern polar region is increasing about
two degrees per week, slowly improving 20 meter northern trans-polar
propagation.
 
Click here for today’s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click here for today’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.
Click here for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.
Click here for today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.
Click here for today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Zdaily.
 
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net