[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal likely thru Wednesday

[Art Boyars]

From: donovanf at erols.com
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2021 01:02:07 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely through Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
through Wednesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals
through Wednesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 92 through Wednesday.
There are three active regions on the visible disk with 17 tiny to small
sunspots mildly improving 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation through
Wednesday. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with
possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal with possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals
through Wednesday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to
east Asia after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible
slightly to mildly below normal intervals through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals
through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible slightly to
mildly below normal intervals through Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals through
Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible slightly to mildly below normal intervals through Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be somewhat less
reliable and shorter in duration.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high* *speed
stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz)
of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
plays a *crucial but unpredictable* *role* in triggering all geomagnetic
storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength greater than five nanoTeslas for several hours *coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly greater
than five nanoTeslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the
effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data
including Bz orientation are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

The solar wind is likely to at mostly background levels with possible weak
coronal hole high speed stream enhancements through Wednesday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to mostly quiet with possible
unsettled intervals
caused by weak coronal hole high speed stream enhancements through
Wednesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 79 minutes earlier and daylength
is 149 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd. Daytime ionization
and residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region is very
low due to polar night effects.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net