[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal 'til CME hits mid-day Sat/30

[Art Boyars]

Good luck to the guys working CQWW SSB this weekend.

From: donovanf at erols.com
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc: k7ra <k7ra at arrl.net>
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2021 01:05:36 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation is likely until CME arrival early
to mid-day Saturday October 30th

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.

 Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal until
likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then mostly below normal
until at least mid-day Sunday.

 Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then
below normal until at least mid-day Sunday.

 Moderate to strong solar flares may cause moderate to severe radio
blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.

 Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

 We are in the geomagnetically active autumn equinox season through late
October with about twice as many geomagnetically active days compared to
December, January, June and July caused by the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) more frequently persisting in a southward orientation (-Bz).

 The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be at least 113 through Sunday.
There are five active regions on the visible disk with 46 mostly small and
a few moderate sized sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

 160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal until likely CME arrival early to mid-day
Saturday, then mostly below normal until at least mid-day Sunday.

 40 meter short path propagation to south Asia until about 0100Z is likely
to be is likely to be mostly normal until likely CME arrival early to
mid-day Saturday, then below normal until at least mid-day Sunday. 40 meter
short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is
likely to be is likely to be normal until likely CME arrival early to
mid-day Saturday, then below normal until at least mid-day Sunday

 30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday,
then below normal until at least mid-day Sunday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

 20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until likely CME arrival early
to mid-day Saturday, then mostly below normal until at least mid-day
Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and
sunset is likely to be normal until likely CME arrival early to mid-day
Saturday, then mostly below normal until at least mid-day Sunday.

 17, 15, 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly
normal until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then mostly
below normal until at least mid-day Sunday.

 Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by coronal hole high speed stream*
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz) component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in
triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward
orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours
*coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several
hours or more *coincident with* the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.

 The solar wind is likely to be near background levels until likely CME
arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then likely to increase to strong wind
until at least mid-day Sunday

 The geomagnetic field is likely to be normal until probable strong CME
arrival early to mid-day Saturday causing minor to strong geomagnetic
storms until at least early Sunday. Earth directed coronal hole high speed
stream effects are not likely through Sunday.

 Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 56 minutes earlier and
daylength is 90 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd. Daytime
ionization and residual nighttime ionization in the far northern polar
region is rapidly declining due to steadily increasing polar night effects.

 Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php>
for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

 Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net