[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Tuesday/7

[Art Boyars]

1. Copy-and-paste text with all the links still gets blocked, but I've
worked out an efficient way to reformat it.

2.  I'll be offline for a couple of days.  I'll resume Wednesday night or
Thursday.

73, Art K3KU/VE4VTR


From: donovanf at erols.com
To: PVRC Reflector <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2021 01:00:46 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday
September 7th

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX.

 Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes, auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

 Click *here* for today’s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three
hours. Click *here* for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions, updated
regularly.

 We are in the geomagnetically active autumn equinox season through late
October with about twice as many geomagnetically active days compared to
December, January, June and July.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

 The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 95 through Tuesday. The
sun’s visible disk has four small and tiny active regions with 26 small and
tiny sunspots.

 160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 40 meter short path
propagation to south Asia at about 0000Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east
Asia after about 0915Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

 30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always
significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation. 30 meter night time long
distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to be improved by
increased ionizing radiation caused by rising sunspot activity.

 20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 20 meter
northern transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be slightly improved by increased ionizing radiation caused by
rising sunspot activity. 20 meter late afternoon, nighttime and early
morning long distance propagation in the northern is likely to be slightly
improved by increased ionizing radiation caused by rising sunspot activity.

 17 and 15 meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern
hemisphere is likely to be slightly improved by increased ionizing
radiation caused by rising sunspot activity.

 Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by coronal hole high speed stream*
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz) component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in
triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward
orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours
*coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several
hours or more *coincident with* the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.

 Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels. The geomagnetic
field is likely to be mostly quiet. CME, geomagnetic storm, coronal hole
high speed stream and solar flare effects strong enough to significantly
degrade HF propagation are not likely through Tuesday.

 Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 66 minutes earlier and
daylength is 125 minutes shorter than it was on the June 21st. Daylength,
solar elevation angle and ionization in the northern polar region have
significantly declined due to the approaching autumn equinox.

 Click *here* for today’s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at
1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here* for today’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated
every three hours.

Click *here* for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* for today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at
0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* for today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and
Forecast updated at 2330Z daily.

 Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net