[RSM] W3LPL: Slight chance of nighttime downs [thru Thurs]

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2022 02:11:50 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a slight
chance of below normal intervals during nighttime hours

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a slight chance of below normal intervals during
nighttime hours.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 101 and is likely to remain unchanged
through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has three tiny, small and medium
sized active regions containing 22 sunspots with a total area of 380
micro-hemispheres (about the 2.2 times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be mostly normal. 160 and 80 meter propagation
to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of below normal
intervals.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of below normal
intervals. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after
about 1000Z is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of below
normal intervals.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a slight chance of below normal intervals. 30
meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of
below normal intervals especially during nighttime hours. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of below normal intervals
especially during nighttime hours. Long distance 20 meter propagation
during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1 region and sporadic-E
blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a slight chance of below normal intervals especially during nighttime
hours. There is a chance of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from
mid-morning to mid-afternoon in North America.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal. 12
and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is
likely to be poor due to seasonally depressed F2 MUFs through late summer.
There is a chance of transatlantic sporadic-E propagation from mid-morning
to mid-afternoon in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely be mostly near background levels through
Thursday. There is a slight chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts
through Thursday on paths crossing the daylight side of the Earth due to a
slight chance of M-class solar flares.

Mostly quiet to conditions are likely with a slight chance of unsettled to
active intervals during nighttime hours.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 46 minutes earlier and day
length is 93 minutes shorter than it was on June 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net

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