[RSM] W3LPL prop forecast 2022 12 19

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2022 03:05:53 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible
moderate degradation of propagation crossing high latitudes late Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible degraded propagation late Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 156 and is likely to remain about the
same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has two large, two medium and
five tiny active regions containing 54 sunspots with a total sunspot area
of 930 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the south Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with possible degraded propagation late
Tuesday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about
0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 40 meter long path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 2130Z is likely to
be mostly normal with possible degraded propagation late Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible degraded propagation late Tuesday. 30
meter long path propagation from North America to east Asia after about
2130Z likely to be mostly normal with possible degraded propagation late
Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible degraded
propagation late Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few
hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with possible
degraded propagation late Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible degraded propagation late Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible degraded propagation late Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path
propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is
likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation
crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when
the solar flux index is about 120 or above and geomagnetic activity is
quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less) through mid-December.

Very long distance 6 meter oblique trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from
North America mostly to CQ Zone 32 is likely to occur occasionally through
early January from the southern tier of U.S. states during mid-afternoon at
the path mid-point (evening hours in the eastern U.S.). More northerly U.S.
locations will less frequently couple into trans-pacific oblique TEP via
sporadic-E paths to W5 and XE. See K6MIO’s excellent article beginning on
page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IM persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including
Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a likelihood of minor to moderate and a slight chance of strong
daytime radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray
radiation from M-class solar flares through Tuesday due to the large number
of active regions on the visible disk.

Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated through Tuesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through mid-day Tuesday
with possible unsettled to  active geomagnetic conditions after mid-day
Tuesday. We are in the winter solstice season when disturbed geomagnetic
conditions occur about half as often as during the spring and fall equinox
seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 77 minutes earlier and day
length is 163 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net