[RSM] W3LPL: Normal, but some below normal intervals mid-Sat thru mid-Sun (UTC)

[Art Boyars]

Date: Fri, 4 Feb 2022 01:58:56 -0500 (EST) From: Frank W3LPL <
donovanf at starpower.net> To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net> Subject: [PVRC]
Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals from
mid day Saturday through mid day Sunday Message-ID:  <
7815338.17943711.1643957936832.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net> Content-Type:
text/plain; charset="utf-8"

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with below normal intervals from mid day Saturday through mid
day Sunday.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click [ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF
Band Conditions , updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 130 through Sunday. There
are five active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 34 tiny, small
and moderate size sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with below normal
intervals from mid day Saturday through mid day Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z is likely to be mostly normal on Saturday but possibly below normal
on Sunday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal but possibly below normal
on Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with below normal intervals from mid day Saturday
through mid day Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals
from mid day Saturday through mid day Sunday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with below normal intervals from mid day Saturday through mid day
Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with below normal intervals from mid day Saturday through mid day Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with below normal intervals from mid day Saturday through mid day Sunday.
Propagation is likely to be mostly brief and unreliable due to geomagnetic
activity and marginally adequate ionizing solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real
time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength are
available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be near nominal levels with moderately enhanced
intervals from mid day Saturday through mid day Sunday due to coronal hole
high speed stream effects. It is possible that M-class solar flares could
cause brief radio blackouts on the sun facing side of the Earth through
Sunday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to unsettled with active intervals
from mid day Saturday through mid day Sunday due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects. Minor geomagnetic storms are possible with a chance of
moderate storms during mid-day Saturday and early Sunday due to coronal
hole high speed stream effects .

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 45 minutes later and day length
is 57 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are low due to
somewhat reduced ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region due to
disturbed geomagnetic conditions and rapidly waning winter solstice effects.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily.

Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours.

Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | here ] for
today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily.

Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | here ] for today 's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: [
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]