[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Thursday

[Art Boyars]

Date: Tue, 8 Feb 2022 23:37:30 -0500 (EST)

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>

To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>

Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday

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>

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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal. Periods of below normal propagation are possible from mid
day Wednesday through mid day Thursday.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 120 through Thursday. There
are four active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 33 tiny, small
and moderate size sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal.
Periods of below normal propagation are possible from mid day Wednesday
through mid day Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Thursday is likely to be mostly normal with a possibility of below
normal propagation. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to
east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and
possibly below normal on Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal. Periods of below normal propagation are possible from
mid day Wednesday through mid day Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always
significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region
blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal. Periods of below normal
propagation are possible from mid day Wednesday through mid day Thursday.
20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal.
Periods of below normal propagation are possible from mid day Wednesday
through mid day Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal.
Periods of below normal propagation are possible from mid day Wednesday
through mid day Thursday. Propagation is likely to be mostly brief due to
marginally adequate ionizing solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength
are available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be near nominal levels . Periods of mild to
moderate enhancement are possible from mid day Wednesday through mid day
Thursday due to possible CME effects. There is a chance that M-class solar
flares could cause brief radio blackouts on the sun facing side of the
Earth through Thursday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet. Periods of active to
minor storm conditions are possible from mid day Wednesday through mid day
Thursday due to possible CME effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 49 minutes later and day length
is 66 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are low due to
somewhat reduced ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily. Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours. Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's
SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z
daily.

Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | here ] for
today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily.

Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | here ] for today 's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: [
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]

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