[RSM] W3LPL: Normal thru Friday

[Art Boyars]

Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2022 00:57:06 -0500 (EST)
From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal through Friday
Message-ID:  <
1998276036.46091087.1645077426470.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net>
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be normal through Friday.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.Click [
http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 103 through Friday. There
are six active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 32 tiny sunspots.
[ https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z is likely to be normal on Friday. 40 meter short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal
through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly
degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of
long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be normal
through Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through
Friday; however, propagation is likely to be mostly brief due to marginal
ionizing solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real
time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength are
available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels through Friday. There
is a slight chance that an M-class solar flare could cause brief radio
blackouts on the sun facing side of the Earth through Friday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet through Friday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 58 minutes later and day length
is 85 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are low due to
somewhat reduced ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily.Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours.Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's
SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z
daily.Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | here
] for today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and
1230Z daily.Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | here ]
for today 's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated
at 2330Z daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: [
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]