[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal, slight chance of brief fadeouts thru Tuesday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 3 Jan 2022 01:41:49 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly normal propagation with a slight chance of brief
shortwave fadeouts through Tuesday

by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
_____________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal on Monday with possible mild MUF degradations due to coronal
hole high speed stream effects then improving to normal on Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 88 through Tuesday.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal on
Monday improving to normal on Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday improving to normal on
Tuesday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday improving to
normal on Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal on Monday improving to normal on Tuesday. 30 meter
propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday improving to normal
on Tuesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise
and sunset is likely to be mostly normal on Monday improving to normal on
Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Tuesday while 12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely
to be much less reliable and shorter in duration due to winter seasonal
effects and significantly reduced ionizing solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least late 2021. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz)
of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all geomagnetic
storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF
field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident with* the
effects of an Earth directed *coronal* *hole high speed stream*. More
frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately enhanced by coronal hole high
speed stream effects on Monday, then returning to background levels on
Tuesday.

The geomagnetic field likely to be mostly quiet with unsettled intervals
and a chance of isolated brief active intervals due to coronal hole high
speed stream effects on Monday improving to mostly quiet on Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of isolated brief short wave fadeouts (radio
blackouts) on the sun facing side of the Earth through Tuesday due to
possible weak M-class flares.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic storms and active
geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox
seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 9 minutes later and day length
is 5 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are very low due
the lack of ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net



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