[RSM] W3LPL: Likely normal, with slight chance of degradation late Friday

Thu Jan 13 05:12:32 EST 2022

You might be getting this one right after the previous one.  Four factors
determine the time I send it to RSM:

1. What time W3LPL sends it to the PVRC Reflector.  I THINK this is
midnight local time (05Z EST), but it might sometimes be a bit later.

2. The delay between then and when the PVRC Reflector sends it out in a
digest (my chosen mode).  Sometimes that's a short delay, sometimes not.

3. The correlation of my insomnia with the arrival of the PVRC Reflector
Digest.

4. Whether, when I see the W3LPL email in the digest, I have the few
minutes it takes to reformat it to send to RSM.

In any case, enjoy it, and I hope to see you in NAQP CW this weekend.  I'll be
QRV starting about 2330Z.
73,
Art K3KU/VE4VTR
============================

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2022 01:46:38 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal until a slight chance of
possibly degraded propagation late Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Friday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal until a slight chance of possibly degraded propagation late Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 104 through Friday. There
are five active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 18 mostly tiny
and small sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be normal until a slight chance of
possibly degraded propagation late Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z is likely to be normal through Friday. 40 meter short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0730Z is likely to
be normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal until a slight chance of possibly degraded propagation late
Friday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be normal until a slight chance of possibly
degraded propagation late Friday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be normal until a slight
chance of possibly degraded propagation late Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal until a
slight chance of possibly degraded propagation late Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be shorter in
duration and less reliable due to winter seasonal effects and marginal
ionizing solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation
(-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all
geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be
gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be at near background levels until late
Friday when there is a chance of slight enhancement by a possible glancing
blow by a CME.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet until late Friday when there is
a chance of slight disturbance by a possible glancing blow by a CME.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic storms and active
geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox
seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 19 minutes later and day length
is 16 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are very low due
the lack of ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region due to winter
solstice effects.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net