[RSM] W3LPL: Normal, but some degradation from mid-dat Sat thru Sun

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2022 02:15:54 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal but moderately
degraded from mid day Saturday through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal with mildly
degraded propagation from mid day Saturday through Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with moderately degraded propagation from mid day Saturday
through Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 106 through Sunday. There
are eight active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 31 mostly tiny
and small sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with moderately
degraded propagation from late Saturday through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z is likely to be mostly normal with moderately degraded propagation on
Sunday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal with moderately degraded
propagation on Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
mostly normal with moderately degraded propagation from late Saturday
through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with moderately degraded
propagation from late Saturday through Sunday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with moderately degraded propagation from late Saturday through
Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with moderately degraded propagation from late Saturday through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be shorter in
duration and less reliable due to winter seasonal effects and marginal
ionizing solar flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation
(-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all
geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be
gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably *when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels until late
Saturday when it becomes enhanced by a coronal hole high speed
stream.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet until late Saturday when a
possible minor geomagnetic storm is likely resulting from coronal hole high
speed stream effects.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic storms and active
geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox
seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 21 minutes later and day length
is 19 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are very low due
the lack of ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region due to winter
solstice effects.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net

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