[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Wednesday

[Art Boyars]

Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2022 01:19:24 -0500 (EST)

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>

To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>

Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday

Message-ID: <901783073.93860269.1643091564947.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net>

Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"



My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Wednesday.



Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with possible mild degradations through Wednesday.



 Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly.



The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 95 through Wednesday. There
are three active regions on the Earth facing disk containing six tiny to
small sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with
possible mild degradations through Wednesday.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia is likely
to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations at about 0100Z
Wednesday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 0730Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.



30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations through Wednesday. 30
meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.



20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations
through Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of
sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild
degradations through Wednesday.



17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with possible mild degradations through Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be very short in
duration and much less reliable due to winter seasonal effects and low
ionizing solar flux.



Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real
time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength are
available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]



Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced by coronal hole high speed
stream effects and a chance of glancing blows by CMEs through Wednesday



The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to unsettled due to coronal
hole high speed stream effects and a chance of glancing blows by CMEs from
through Wednesday . Active geomagnetic conditions and a slight chance of a
minor geomagnetic storm are possible early Wednesday.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 32 minutes later and day length
is 35 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are very low due
the lack of ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region due to winter
solstice effects and low solar ionizing radiation.



Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily. Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours.



Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.



Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | here ] for
today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z
daily.



Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | here ] for today 's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.



Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:

[ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]