[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Sunday

[Art Boyars]

Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 23:23:08 -0500 (EST)

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>

To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>

Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday

Message-ID: <467792534.2413340.1643343788470.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net>

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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Sunday.



Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations through Sunday.



 Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly.



The solar flux index (SFI) is likely to be about 105 through Sunday. There
are six active regions on the Earth facing disk containing 24 tiny sunspots
and one small sunspot. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter propagation
from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
mild degradations through Sunday.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Sunday is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild
degradations. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east
Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild
degradations through Sunday.



30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations through Sunday. 30
meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.



20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild
degradations through Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few
hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
mild degradations through Sunday.



17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of mild degradations through Sunday.



12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be short in duration
and less reliable due to winter seasonal effects and low ionizing solar
flux.



Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly
and unpredictably
when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field
strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more
coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time
geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength are
available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]



Solar wind speed is likely to be slightly enhanced through Sunday by
coronal hole high speed stream effects and a chance of glancing blows by
CMEs. There is a slight chance that an M-class solar flare could cause a
brief radio blackout on the sun facing side of the Earth through Sunday.



 The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to unsettled through Sunday
due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a chance of glancing
blows by CMEs. There is a chance of isolated active intervals through
Sunday.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 36 minutes later and day length
is 43 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are low due the
reduced ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region due to winter
solstice effects and low solar ionizing radiation.



 Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily. Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours. Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's
SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z
daily. Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion |
here ] for today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at
0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 |
here ] for today 's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast
updated at 2330Z daily. Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for
DXers can be found at: [ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation |
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [ http://www.solarham.net/ |
http://www.solarham.net ]