[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe some below normal Wednesday/13

[Art Boyars]

This one wound up in my gmail "Promotions" folder, and I didn't see it
until almost noon (EDT).  I have to figure out how to get ALL the PVRC
digest emails into my "Primary" inbox.

73, Art K3KU/VE4VTR

=============================================

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2022 02:27:25 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
below normal intervals at high latitudes during Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be normal degrading to
mostly normal during Wednesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals during Wednesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 161 and may increase slightly to 165 on
Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has seven active regions with 64 tiny to
large sunspots.
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
below normal intervals during Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals
during Wednesday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia
after about 1000Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below
normal intervals during Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals during
Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a
few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below
normal intervals during Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a
few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with a chance
of below normal intervals during Wednesday. Long distance 20 meter
propagation during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1 region and
sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of below normal intervals during Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of below normal intervals during Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter
F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid latitudes is likely to
be poor due to seasonally depressed MUFs through late summer. Transatlantic
sporadic-E propagation is possible especially from mid-morning through late
afternoon in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be slightly enhanced increasing to
moderately enhanced during Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream
effects.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be unsettled to active with likely minor
storm conditions before mid-day Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects. We are in the summer solstice season when active conditions
and geomagnetic storms are about half as likely as during the equinox
seasons.   Minor radio blackouts affecting circuits crossing the sunlit
regions of the ionosphere are likely through Wednesday with a slight chance
of moderate or stronger radio blackouts during Wednesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is two minutes earlier than it was
on June 21st and day length is 13 minutes shorter.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net

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