[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal, maybe sometimes a little below , thru Sunday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2022 02:17:28 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
slightly below normal intervals at high latitudes through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of slightly below normal intervals at high
latitudes through Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 169 and is likely remain at about 165 to
170 through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has five active regions with 83
mostly tiny and a few medium to large sunspots.
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
slightly below normal intervals through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of slightly below normal
intervals through Sunday. Short path propagation from North America to east
Asia after about 1000Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below
normal intervals through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of slightly below normal intervals
through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of slightly
below normal intervals through Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
a chance of slightly below normal intervals through Sunday. Long distance
20 meter propagation during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1
region and sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of slightly below normal intervals through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of slightly below normal intervals through Sunday. 12 and 10
meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid latitudes is likely
to be poor due to seasonally depressed MUFs through late summer.
Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation is possible especially from
mid-morning through late afternoon in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind parameters are likely to be slightly enhanced as coronal hole
high speed stream effects decline to background levels by Sunday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet with a chance of
unsettled to active conditions and a slight chance of minor storm
conditions through Sunday as coronal hole high speed stream effects decline
to background levels. We are in the summer solstice season when active
conditions and geomagnetic storms are about half as likely as during the
equinox seasons.   Minor radio blackouts affecting circuits crossing the
sunlit regions of the ionosphere are likely through Sunday with a slight
chance of moderate or stronger radio blackouts.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is four minutes earlier than it was
on June 21st and day length is 17 minutes shorter.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net