[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal through Sunday, June 5

[Art Boyars]

(I will be QRT until Monday night, so I'll probably miss Monday's report --
Art VE4VTR)

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>

To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 3 Jun 2022 01:55:04 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal then possibly
degrading to mostly normal by mid-day Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to
be mostly normal then possibly degrading to mostly below normal by mid-day
Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly .

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 101 and is forecast to remain about the
same through Sunday. There are four active regions on the Earth facing
disk containing 19 tiny to medium sized sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal then possibly
degrading to mostly below normal by mid-day Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0945Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal then possibly degrading to mostly below normal by
mid-day Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal then possibly degrading to
mostly below normal by mid-day Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal then
possibly degrading to mostly below normal by mid-day Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
then possibly degrading to mostly below normal by mid-day Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
then possibly degrading to mostly below normal by mid-day Sunday. 10 meter
F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to
be unreliable due to depressed MUFs that occur from late spring through
late summer. Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation is possible especially
from mid-morning through early evening in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels then possibly
mildly enhanced by a CME by mid-day Sunday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet then degrading to
unsettled to active by mid-day Sunday due to CME effects. We are in the
summer solstice season when active conditions and geomagnetic storms are
about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 69 minutes later and day length
is 158 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

Click *here*
<https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php>
for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net