[RSM] W3LPL: Normal thru Thursday/23

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 22 Jun 2022 02:18:31 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions likely to be
mostly normal through Thursday.

Click https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif for today's
latest estimated planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html for N0NBH's current HF
Band Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 139 and may decline to as low as 125 by
Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has six active regions with 44 tiny to
medium size sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 1000Z is likely to
be mostly normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to mostly normal through Thursday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Long distance 20 meter
propagation during daylight hours may be severely degraded by F1 region and
sporadic-E blanketing of propagation via the F2 region.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid latitudes is likely to be poor due to seasonally depressed
MUFs through late summer. Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation is possible
especially from mid-morning through early evening in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is expected to be at nominal levels due to waning coronal
hole high speed stream activity, then possibly at mildly enhanced levels
after mid-day Thursday due to the coronal hole high speed stream effects
and possible CME arrival.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet through Thursday then possibly
unsettled to active after mid-day Thursday due to the coronal hole high
speed stream effects and possible CME arrival. We are in the summer
solstice season when active conditions and geomagnetic storms are about
half as likely as during the equinox seasons.

There is a chance of a minor to moderate radio blackouts affecting
propagation crossing the sun facing side of the earth through Thursday with
a slight chance of strong blackouts.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is one minute later and day length
is unchanged since June 21st.

Click
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
for the Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index.

Click
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

for today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three
hours.

Click
https://wwwbis.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu/
for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated
at 1230Z daily.

Click https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 for today's Australian
Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net

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