[RSM] W3LL: Normal thru Wed/2

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday
Message-ID: <603115266.15950658.1646108657314.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"


My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.


Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Wednesday.


Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly
normal then gradually improving to normal by mid day Wednesday.



Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly



The solar flux index (SFI) is 99 and likely to rise to about 105 on
Wednesday. There are five active regions on the Earth facing disk containing
15 tiny and small sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]


160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal then
gradually improving to normal by mid day Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Wednesday is likely to be mostly normal. 40 meter short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to
be mostly normal then gradually improving to normal by mid day Wednesday.


30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal then gradually improving to normal by mid day
Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a
few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.


20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal then gradually improving to
normal by mid day Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few
hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal gradually then
improving to normal by mid day Wednesday.


17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
then gradually improving to normal by mid day Wednesday.


12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
then gradually improving to normal by mid day Wednesday; however, long
distance propagation is likely to be mostly brief due to marginal ionizing
solar flux.


Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME. Real
time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength are
available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]


Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced through early Wednesday
due to coronal hole high speed stream effects .


The geomagnetic field is likely to be quiet to unsettled then gradually
improving to mostly quiet by mid day Wednesday.


Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 71 minutes later and day length
is 114 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are low due to
somewhat reduced ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region.



Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily. Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours. Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's
SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z
daily. Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion |
here ] for today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at
0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 |
here ] for today 's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast
updated at 2330Z daily.


Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: [
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]