[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Thurs/3

[Art Boyars]

Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 01:49:16 -0500 (EST)
From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday
Message-ID: <1336096994.18364243.1646203756758.JavaMail.zimbra at starpower.net
>
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages is
published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely 1o be normal through
Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal then gradually improving to normal during Thursday.

Click [ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif | here
] for today ?s latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | here ] for N0NBH?s current HF Band
Conditions , updated regularly.

The solar flux index (SFI) is 105 and likely to continue at about 105
through Thursday. There are five active regions on the Earth facing disk
containing 16 tiny and small sunspots. [
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg |
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg ]

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter
propagation from North America to Asia is likely to be mostly normal then
gradually improving to normal during Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Thursday is likely to be mostly normal. 40 meter short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to
be mostly normal then gradually improving to normal during Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal then gradually improving to normal during Thursday. 30
meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be mostly normal then gradually improving to
normal during Thursday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours
of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal then gradually
improving to normal during Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
then gradually improving to normal during Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
then gradually improving to normal during Thursday; however, long distance
propagation is likely to be mostly brief due to marginal ionizing solar
flux.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream . More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field strength
are available here: [
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot |
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot ]

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced during Wednesday due to
coronal hole high speed stream effects than improving to near background
levels as coronal hole high speed stream effects gradually wane during
Thursday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet with unsettled intervals
on Wednesday then gradually improving to quiet on Thursday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 72 minutes later and day length
is 117 minutes longer than it was on December 21st. Daytime ionization and
residual nighttime ionization in the northern polar region are low due to
somewhat reduced ionizing solar flux in the northern polar region.

Click [ https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php | here ] for
today ?s Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and
2300Z daily. Click [
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png
|
here ] for today ?s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every
three hours. Click [ http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/ | here ] for today 's
SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z
daily. Click [ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion |
here ] for today 's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at
0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click [ https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 |
here ] for today 's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast
updated at 2330Z daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: [
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [
http://www.solarham.net/ | http://www.solarham.net ]