[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly below normal thru Friday, April 1

Art Boyars artboyars at gmail.com
Thu Mar 31 06:38:32 EDT 2022


From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2022 02:48:13 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly below normal through
Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with
possible below normal intervals through Friday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be mostly below normal with isolated normal intervals through
late Friday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly.

Today’s solar flux index (SFI) is 151 and is likely to remain at about 150
through Friday. There are seven active regions on the Earth facing disk
containing 32 mostly tiny and small sunspots and several mid size and large
sunspots. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the south
Pacific is likely to be below normal with isolated normal intervals through
late Friday. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia is likely to be below
normal with isolated normal intervals through late Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0100Z Friday is likely to be mostly below normal. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly
below normal on Wednesday and mostly normal with below normal intervals
Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be below normal with isolated normal intervals through late Friday. 30
meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of
local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be below normal with isolated normal intervals
through late Friday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of
sunrise and sunset likely to be below normal with isolated normal intervals
through late Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation likely to be below normal with
isolated normal intervals through late Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation likely to be below normal with
isolated normal intervals through late Friday.

Geomagnetic disturbances *caused by CME and coronal hole high speed*
*stream* effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
frequent through at least early 2022. Persistent southward orientation
(-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) plays a *crucial but unpredictable role* in triggering all
geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be
gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours *coincident
with* the effects of an Earth directed *coronal* *hole high speed stream*.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be
triggered *suddenly* *and unpredictably* when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength significantly stronger
than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more *coincident with* the effects
of an Earth directed fast CME. Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation and IMF field strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is likely to be enhanced through late Friday due to
effects of back-to-back CMEs. Radio blackouts are likely on the sun facing
side of the Earth through Friday due to possible M-class solar flares with
a slight chance of an X-class solar flare.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly at minor storm levels through
early Friday, then improving to mostly active to unsettled conditions
through late Friday. A major geomagnetic storm is possible early Thursday
with a chance of an isolated severe geomagnetic storm due to back-to-back
CME impacts, then gradually improving to minor geomagnetic storm conditions
from before mid day Thursday through early Friday. Mostly active to
unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely to persist through late Friday.
We are in the more geomagnetically active equinox season when active and
geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely as during the
solstice seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is ten minutes later and day length
is 28 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net


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