[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Friday/13

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Thu, 12 May 2022 01:57:43 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal
through Friday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Friday. Click *here*
<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif> for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours. Click *here*
<http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions,
updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 133 and forecast to decline to 124 on
Friday. There are four active regions on the Earth facing disk containing
35 tiny to medium sized sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0015Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly
normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation likely to be mostly normal
through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly
normal through Friday. Propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid
latitudes is likely to be somewhat unreliable due to marginal ionizing
solar flux and depressed MUFs that usually occur from late spring through
late summer.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through mid 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but
unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to
moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF
persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about
5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth
directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration,
minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

The solar wind is likely to be mostly at background levels through late
Friday with the possibility of a mildly disturbed solar wind field after
late Thursday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet through late Friday.
There is a chance of brief unsettled to active conditions from late
Thursday through Friday. Minor to moderate radio blackouts affecting
propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are possible through
Friday, with a chance of an isolated strong radio blackout.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 51 minutes later and day length
is 125 minutes longer than it was on March 20th. Click *here*
<https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php>
for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.
Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours. Click
*here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily Bulletin
on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily. Click *here*
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion> for today's SWPC
Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily. Click
*here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net

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