[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal thru Wed/18

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank Donovan <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 17 May 2022 01:32:33 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal
through Wednesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal through Wednesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 162 and forecast to decline to 160 on
Wednesday. There are seven active regions on the Earth facing
disk containing 91 tiny to medium sized sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0015Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. Short path
propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to
be mostly normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is
always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset
likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation likely to be mostly normal
through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly
normal through Wednesday. Propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid
latitudes is likely to be somewhat unreliable due to depressed MUFs that
typically occur from late spring through late summer.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through mid 2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but
unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to
moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF
persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about
5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth
directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration,
minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is expected to be influenced by mild coronal hole high
speed streams through Tuesday and waning during Wednesday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
to possibly active intervals on Tuesday. Mostly quiet conditions with
possible unsettled intervals are likely Wednesday. Minor to moderate radio
blackouts affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are
possible through Wednesday, with a chance of an isolated strong radio
blackout.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 55 minutes later and day length
is 132 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

Click *here*
<https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php>
for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net