[RSM] W3LPL: Maybe getting worse after mid-day Thurs

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 25 May 2022 01:25:36 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal then possibly degrading
to mostly normal after mid-day Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal
through Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal on Wednesday then possibly degrading to mostly normal after
mid-day Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 147 and forecast to decline to 144 on
Thursday. There are nine active regions on the Earth facing disk containing
47 tiny to medium sized sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be normal on Wednesday then possibly
degrading to mostly normal after mid-day Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal through Thursday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0945Z is likely to be normal through
Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal on Wednesday then possibly degrading to mostly normal after
mid-day Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long
distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday then possibly
degrading to mostly normal after mid-day Thursday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be normal
on Wednesday then possibly degrading to mostly normal after
mid-day Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation likely to be normal on Wednesday
then possibly degrading to mostly normal after mid-day Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal on
Wednesday then possibly degrading to mostly normal after mid-day Thursday.
10 meter propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is
likely to be somewhat unreliable due to depressed MUFs that usually
occur from late spring through late summer.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is expected to be at ambient background levels on
Wednesday then may reach mildly enhanced levels after mid-day Thursday due
to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet on Wednesday then
possibly degrading to unsettled to active after mid-day Thursday. We are
entering the solstice season when active conditions and geomagnetic storms
are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 62 minutes later and day length
is 147 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

Click *here*
<https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php>
for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z daily

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net