[RSM] W3LPL: Chance of some below normal thru Sun/29

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 27 May 2022 01:18:38 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
below normal intervals through early Sunday May 27th

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through
Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals through early Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 123 and forecast to decline to 110 on
Sunday. There are seven active regions on the Earth facing disk containing
17 tiny to medium sized sunspots.
https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
below normal intervals through early Sunday. through early Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals
through early Sunday. Short path propagation from North America to east
Asia after about 0945Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals through early
Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few
hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below
normal intervals through early Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation
within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly normal with
a chance of below normal intervals through early Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of below normal intervals through early Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of below normal intervals through early Sunday. 10 meter F2
propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to
be somewhat unreliable due to depressed MUFs that usually occur from late
spring through late summer. Transatlantic sporadic-E propagation is
possible especially from mid-morning through early evening in North America.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent
through at least mid-2022. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
trength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Solar wind speed is expected to be at mildly enhanced levels through Sunday
due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a possible glancing blow
by a CME during Saturday.

The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through
Sunday with a chance of minor storm conditions early Saturday. We are in
the summer solstice season when active conditions and geomagnetic storms
are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 64 minutes later and day length
is 152 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

Click *here*
<https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php>
for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net