[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly normal; maybe down some of Friday and Sunday

[Art Boyars]

Sorry that I have missed several days; it's our busy season.  I'll be QRX
early next week, hoping to catch up again mid-week.

73, Art K3KU/VE4VTR
=============================

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 7 Oct 2022 00:46:47 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of
degraded periods at mid and high latitudes on Friday and Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal with a chance of
degraded periods late Friday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a
chance of degraded periods late Friday and early Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of degraded periods late Friday and early
Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 1156 and is likely to remain about the
same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has two tiny, three medium and
one very large NOAA active region containing 79 sunspots with a total area
of 1140 micro-hemispheres (about six times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal with a chance of below normal periods
late Friday. 160 and 80 meter propagation to Asia is likely to be mostly
normal with a chance of below normal periods late Friday and early Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly
normal with a chance of below normal periods early Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal periods late Friday and
early Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within
a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance
F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below
normal periods late Friday and early Sunday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be mostly
normal with a chance of below normal periods late Friday and early Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of below normal periods late Friday and early Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
with a chance of below normal periods late Friday and early Sunday. 12 and
10 meter long path propagation is seasonally enhanced through mid-November.
12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes
is likely to be enhanced by increased solar ionizing radiation during
periods of normal propagation through mid-December.

6 meter trans equatorial propagation (TEP) continues to occur frequently at
lower mid-latitude locations through November, with infrequent sporadic-E
links to higher mid-latitude locations.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts through Sunday with
durations of 15 to 60 minutes or more on paths crossing the daylight side
of the Earth due to sudden bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar
flares. There is a slight chance of a strong X-class solar flare through
Sunday with duration of 15 minutes to several hours.

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly to strongly enhanced by coronal
hole high speed streams and possible CME effects through Sunday.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled with
possible active intervals late Friday and early Sunday due to coronal hole
high speed stream effects. There is a chance of minor storm conditions
through Sunday due to coronal hole high speed stream and possible CME
effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 26 minutes earlier and day
length is 40 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net