[RSM] W3LPL: Likely normal Fri, then mostly normal thru Sunday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 14 Oct 2022 01:25:48 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal on Friday then mostly
normal through Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through
Sunday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal on Friday then mostly normal through Sunday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 130 and is likely to decline to about 115
by Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one tiny, two medium and one large
NOAA active region containing 17 sunspots with a total area of 480
micro-hemispheres (about 2.5 times the Earth’s surface area).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80
meter propagation to Asia is likely to be normal on Friday then mostly
normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal on
Friday then mostly normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal on Friday then mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter
propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal on Friday then mostly normal
through Sunday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of
sunrise and sunset is likely to be normal on Friday then mostly normal
through Sunday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal on Friday
then mostly normal through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal on Friday
then mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation
continues to be seasonally enhanced through mid-November. 12 and 10 meter
F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to
be enhanced during periods of enhanced solar ionizing radiation and mostly
quiet geomagnetic activity through mid-December.

6 meter trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) continues to occur almost every
day at lower mid-latitudes through November, with less reliable, shorter
duration propagation extending to higher latitudes.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by CME and coronal hole high speed stream
effects are likely to be seasonally more severe and about twice as frequent
through mid-October. Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a
crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief
minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the
IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an
Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation and IMF field
strength are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

There is a chance of minor radio blackouts through Sunday with durations of
15 to 60 minutes or more on paths crossing the daylight side of the Earth
due to unpredictable sudden bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar
flares.

Solar wind effects are likely to at nominal levels on Friday then slightly
elevated early Saturday and early Sunday due to coronal hole high speed
stream and CME effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through Sunday with
unsettled periods early Saturday and early Sunday due to coronal hole high
speed stream and CME effects.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 36 minutes earlier and day
length is 56 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net