[RSM] W3LPL: Propagation likely above normal thru at least Tuesday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2023 01:55:56 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be above normal at low, mid and
high latitudes through at least Tuesday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes, the auroral ovals and polar
regions is likely to be above normal through at least Tuesday.

VE3EN’s End-of-Day Solar Report is published daily at 0045Z at
https://www.solarham.net

Today's Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 27 minutes later and day length
is 70 minutes longer than it was on March 20th.

The April 17th Estimated International Sunspot Number is 159. Today's solar
flux index (SFI) is 178 and is likely to decline slightly through Tuesday.
The sun’s visible disk has one very large, two large, two medium and four
tiny active regions containing 65 sunspots with a total sunspot area of
1340 micro-hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts caused by M-class
solar flares and a slight chance of strong radio blackouts caused by
X-class solar flares through Tuesday.

The solar wind is likely to remain at near background levels of less than
350 km/second through at least Tuesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through at least Tuesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be above normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be above normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be above
normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be above normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly
degraded within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long
distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be above normal through Tuesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be above normal through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above
normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from
North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be above
normal through Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be above normal
through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America
to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to above normal through
Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere
mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is above
120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a chance through Tuesday of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP)
from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from early afternoon
through late evening. There is a chance through Tuesday of oblique-TEP from
the southern tier and western U.S. states to VK/ZL and the south Pacific
from late afternoon through early evening. There is a lesser chance that
stations at mid-latitudes in the U.S. may briefly couple into both TEP and
oblique-TEP via brief geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude
sporadic-E propagation. TEP and oblique-TEP may be enhanced during strong
to severe geomagnetic storms. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP,
oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP
beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME (faster
than 700 km/second).

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1700Z, 2000Z and 2300Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

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