[RSM] W3LPL forecast thru Sun, Aug 6

Fri Aug 4 07:42:47 EDT 2023

Hope to see some of you in NAQP CW Saturday night... if I can figure out
how to fix the new AM broadcast QRM that is crudding up the bands at my
house. -- Art K3KU
==============

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Fri, 4 Aug 2023 04:18:23 -0400 (EDT)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be normal through midday Friday,
degrading to mostly normal with degradations to mostly below normal during
local nighttime hours early Saturday, then gradually improving to normal
after midday Sunday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five
days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are
in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through late
Friday, degrading to mostly normal through midday Sunday, gradually
improving to normal after midday Sunday.   Propagation crossing mid
latitudes is likely to be normal through late Friday, degrading to mostly
normal with degradations to mostly below normal during local nighttime
hours early Saturday, gradually improving to normal after midday Sunday.
Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal through late Friday, degrading to mostly below normal with
degradations to below normal during local nighttime hours early Saturday,
gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every
hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at
https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html   Near-real time maps and data about
ionospheric conditions are available at prop.kc2g.com
<http://www.prop.kc2g.com/>

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 32 minutes later and sunset is
20 minutes earlier than it was on June 21st. Sunrise is about two hours
earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the
F2 region than it is at ground level. The sun never sets today on the F2
region north of 53 degrees north latitude.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number was 137 and is likely to
remain about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one large,
six medium and two tiny active regions containing 34 sunspots with a total
sunspot area of 1020 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of
the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely
during Friday declining to a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts during
Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance of isolated strong daytime
radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares during Friday.

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels at about 350 to 400
km/second through late Friday, increasing to moderately elevated levels of
about 450 to 500 km/second through midday Saturday then gradually declining
to mildly elevated to near background levels of about 400 to 450 km/second
during Sunday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled through
midday Friday, degrading to mostly active through late Friday, further
degrading to active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions through midday
Saturday, gradually improving to unsettled to active through midday Sunday
and continuing to improve to quiet to unsettled through late Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be normal through late Friday, mostly normal
through early Sunday, gradually improving to normal through late Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after
0000Z is likely to be below normal on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.
Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about
0930Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mostly below normal on Saturday and
mostly normal on Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal through late Friday, degrading to mostly below normal with
degradations to below normal during local nighttime hours early Saturday,
gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday. 30 meter
propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of
local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and
polar regions is likely to be normal through late Friday, degrading to
mostly below normal with degradations to below normal during local
nighttime hours early Saturday, improving to mostly normal through midday
Sunday and normal through late Sunday. 20 meter long distance propagation
at low and mid latitudes in the northern hemisphere is usually degraded
from several hours before noon until several hours after noon through late
August by E region and sporadic-E blanketing of long distance low angle F2
propagation.

17 and 15 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal through late Friday, degrading to
mostly below normal with degradations to below normal during local
nighttime hours early Saturday, improving to mostly normal through midday
Sunday and normal through late Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path
propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is
likely to be normal on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on
Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal
through late Friday, degrading to mostly below normal through early
Saturday, improving to mostly normal through midday Sunday and normal
through late Sunday. 12 and especially 10 meter long distance propagation
crossing the north Atlantic and north Pacific is degraded by seasonally
lower daytime MUFs due to reduced daytime free electron density in the F2
region through late September. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from
North America to western Australia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to
be normal on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on Sunday.

There is a slight chance of 6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation up
to about 8000 km in the northern hemisphere from mid-morning through
evening. Long distance sporadic-E is much less reliable, much more sporadic
and much shorter in duration as we approach the end of most sporadic-E
propagation in mid-August. See K6MIO’s excellent article about 6 meter long
distance sporadic-E:
www.qsl.net/wa3mej/Articles/Propagation/6M%20Prop/K6MIO/Extreme%20Range%2050-MHz%20Es-%20East%E2%80%93West%20(EWEE).pdf

There is a very slight chance through Sunday of very brief isolated 6 meter
F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states
to South America and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7) from early afternoon
through late evening. There is a very slight chance through Sunday of very
brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly
from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa during
mid-afternoon.  There is a very slight chance through Sunday of very brief
isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south
Pacific and VK/ZL during late afternoon and early evening through Sunday.
There is a very slight chance that more northerly US stations may briefly
couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of
mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be enhanced during the onset
of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly
degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6
meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to
TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours
or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind
exceeding 500 km/second.   The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely
to remain at about 60 through Sunday and is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and
2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength,
solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three
hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated
daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z
and 1230Z at: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated
daily at 2330Z at: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

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