[RSM] W3LPL: A bit down Tues; back up to normal mid-day Wed

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2023 03:14:18 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mildly degraded propagation is likely on Tuesday improving
to mostly normal by mid-day Wednesday

FT8WW sunrise is at 0145Z and sunset is at 1548Z.

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. ll days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through
Wednesday.   Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly
normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
below normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly
The February 13th daily Estimated International Sunspot Number is 196.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 189 and is likely to remain about the
same through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has three large, four medium
and six tiny active regions containing 47 sunspots with a total sunspot
area of 1165 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the
Earth). https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be below normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on
Wednesday. Short path propagation from North America to east Asia after
about 0815Z is likely to be below normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on
Wednesday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America to east and
southeast Asia at about 2200Z is likely to be below normal on Tuesday and
mostly normal on Wednesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be below normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday. 30 meter long
path propagation from North America to east and southeast Asia at about
2200Z is likely to be below normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on
Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a
few hours of local noo by E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be below normal on Tuesday and mostly normal
on Wednesday. 20 meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise
and sunset is likely to be below normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on
Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be below normal on
Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be below normal on
Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path
propagation from North America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is
likely to be below normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday. 12 and
10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is
likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index is above 120 and
geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a slight chance through Wednesday of trans-equatorial F2
propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America
from mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser chance through
Wednesday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states to CQ Zone
32 and VK/ZL during mid-afternoon and early evening in the U.S. There is a
lesser chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may briefly couple into
both TEP and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals of mid-latitude
sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP,
oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP
beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed nd short term k-index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Mild to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by X-ray radiation from
strong M-class solar flares are probable through Wednesday. There is a
slight chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-ray radiation
from X-class solar flares through Wednesday.

Solar wind parameters are likely to be moderately elevated on Tuesday due
to possible CME effects declining to mildly elevated by mid-day Wednesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled to active through Wednesday
with a slight chance of isolated minor storm intervals on Wednesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 55 minutes later and day length
is 77 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net