[RSM] W3LPL: Below normal thru Tuesday/28

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2023 00:13:16 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Mostly below normal propagation is likely at low to
mid-latitudes and below normal propagation is likely at high latitudes
through Tuesday

FT8WW sunrise is at 0204Z and sunset is at 1525Z. 3B7M  sunrise is at 0143Z
and sunset is at 1414Z. 17 meter short path FT8WW and 3B7M propagation to
North America is favorable from 0300Z to 0500Z. 12 and 10 meter propagation
to North America is possible from 1200Z to 1400Z. See OH6BG’s FT8WW and
3B7M propagation forecast pages here: https://voacap.com/dx/crozet
https://www.voacap.com/dx/3b7m

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through
Tuesday.

Propagation crossing mid-latitudes is likely to be mostly below normal
through Tuesday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
below normal through Tuesday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

The February 27th daily Estimated International Sunspot Number 1s 111.
Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 159 and is likely to remain about the
same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, three
medium and two tiny active regions containing 60 sunspots with a total
sunspot area of 830 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of
the Earth). https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be mostly below normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be below normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation
from North America to east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be below
normal through Tuesday. 40 meter long path propagation from North America
to southeast Asia at about 2200Z is likely to be below normal through
Tuesday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be below normal through Tuesday. 30 meter long path propagation from
North America to southeast Asia at about 2200Z is likely to be below normal
through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded
within a few hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance F2
propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be below normal through Tuesday. 20
meter transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is
likely to be below normal through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below
normal through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below
normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North
America to east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be below normal
through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter F2 propagation crossing northern
hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to be enhanced when the solar flux index
is above 120 and geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3
or less).

There is a slight chance through Tuesday of trans-equatorial F2
trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to
South America from mid-afternoon through late evening. There is a lesser
chance through Tuesday of oblique-TEP from the southern tier of U.S. states
to VK/ZL and the south Pacific during mid-afternoon and early evening in
the U.S. There is a lesser chance that U.S. stations at mid-latitudes may
briefly couple into both TEP and oblique-TEP via brief isolated intervals
of mid-latitude sporadic-E propagation. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6
meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to
TEP beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

mild R1-class to moderate R2-class daytime radio blackouts caused by X-ray
radiation from M-class solar flares are possible through Tuesday, with a
slight chance of strong R3-class daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class
solar flares through Tuesday.

Solar wind speed is likely to be strongly enhanced by coronal hole high
speed stream and CME effects through Tuesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be dominated by geomagnetic storms
degrading HF propagation through late Tuesday especially at high latitudes.
Degradations may briefly ease during mid-day Sunday until another round of
geomagnetic storms commences late Tuesday.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 72 minutes later and day length
is 106 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.  Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be
found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net