[RSM] W3LPL: Mostly above normal, but... thru Thursday

[Art Boyars]

From: Frank W3LPL <donovanf at starpower.net>
To: PVRC <pvrc at mailman.qth.net>
Cc:
Bcc:
Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2023 01:57:33 -0500 (EST)
Subject: [PVRC] Propagation is likely to be mostly above normal with a
chance of mildly degraded propagation crossing high latitudes during local
night hours through Thursday

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages
is published five days a week (M-F) in the Daily DX. All days and times in
this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be above normal
through Thursday.

Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal with a chance of mildly degraded propagation during local night
hours through Thursday.

Click *here* <https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
for today’s
latest planetary Kp Index, updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> for N0NBH’s current HF Band
Conditions, updated regularly.

Today's solar flux index (SFI) is 193 and is likely to remain about the
same through at least Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has two very large,
one large, two medium and three tiny active region containing 121 sunspots
with a total sunspot area of 2180 micro-hemispheres (about 11 times the
surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
south Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia at about
0000Z is likely to be normal with a chance of mild degradation during local
night time hours through Thursday. Short path propagation from
North America to east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal with a
chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through Thursday.
40 meter long path propagation from North America to east Asia after about
2130Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal with a chance of mild degradation during local night time
hours through Thursday. 30 meter long path propagation from North America
to east Asia after about 2130Z likely to be normal with a chance of mild
degradation during local night time hours through Thursday. 30 meter
propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local
noon by E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
and polar regions is likely to be normal with a chance of mild degradation
during local night time hours through Thursday. 20 meter transpolar
propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is likely to be normal
with a chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through
Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal with a
chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal with a
chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to east Asia from
about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal with a chance of mild
degradation during local night time hours through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter
F2 propagation crossing northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is likely to
be enhanced when the solar flux index is about 120 or higher and
geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (K index of 3 or less).

There is a chance of very long distance 6 meter oblique trans-equatorial
propagation (TEP) from North America mostly to CQ Zone 32 through
mid-January from the southern tier of U.S. states during mid-afternoon at
the path mid-point (evening hours in the eastern U.S.). There is a slight
chance that more northerly U.S. locations might couple into trans-pacific
oblique TEP via infrequent sporadic-E propagation to W5 and XE. See K6MIO’s
excellent article beginning on page 66 at:
https://k5tra.net/TechFiles/2014%20Central%20States%20whole%20book.pdf

Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor
to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with
IMF field strength significantly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several
hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME
(faster than 1000 km per second). Real time geomagnetic data including Bz
orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term K Index
forecast are available here:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by unpredictable sudden
bursts of X-ray radiation from M-class solar flares are likely through
Thursday with a chance of strong X-class flares due to four active regions
on the visible disk capable of producing flares.

Solar wind speed is likely to be slightly elevated on Wednesday due to weak
coronal hole high speed stream effects then waning to near background
levels during Thursday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled
conditions and a chance of active conditions through Thursday. We are
nearing the end of the winter solstice season when disturbed geomagnetic
conditions occur about half as often as during the spring and fall equinox
seasons.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 16 minutes later and day length
is 12 minutes longer than it was on December 21st.

Click *here* <https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4-en.php> for today’s
Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index updated at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z daily.

Click *here*
<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png>
for today’s
three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast updated every three hours.

Click *here* <http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/> for today's SIDC Daily
Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity updated at 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
for today's
SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion updated at 0030Z and 1230Z daily.

Click *here* <https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1> for today's
Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast updated at 2330Z
daily.
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and http://www.solarham.net